Market review of the first two weeks (2022.1.24-2022.4): the Shanghai index fluctuated on the first day, followed by a downward trend for four consecutive days, the Shenzhen index rose slightly on the first day, and then fell for four consecutive days. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57% to close at 3361.44. The CSI 300 fell 4.51% last week to close at 4563.77. The gem fell 4.14% last week to close at 2908.94. Last week, one of the sub sectors of social services and tourism retail rose, with the range from high to low: tourism retail (+ 2.94%), tourism and scenic spots (- 2.24%), education (- 2.95%), hotel catering (- 4.11%) and professional services (- 6.37%). Last week, all 31 primary industries of Shenwan (2021) fell, and the top five were power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commerce and retail, transportation and national defense and military industry. Among them, the social service sector fell 4.28%, ranking 12th among the 31 industries of Shenwan (2021), outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.23pcts. Tax exemption on outlying islands, seize the opportunity of Spring Festival consumption and help the healthy development of business forms; In 2021, China’s tourism will recover steadily, and the Winter Olympics will drive the popularity of ice and snow tourism; The Spring Festival accelerates the growth of sales of prefabricated vegetables, and many factors open up incremental space.
Main points:
Hainan duty-free pays close attention to the opportunity of the holiday peak and helps the healthy development of business forms by tracing the source code: according to the Haiyi office app, the Department of Commerce will jointly launch various preferential activities with duty-free operators during the Spring Festival to pay close attention to the peak and promote tourism consumption. A spokesman for Haikou Customs said on the 25th that during the period from August 1 to December 31 last year, all duty-free enterprises sold 18.4966 million traceable source goods with stickers to control the “set purchase” behavior, and the management category was expanded to 45 categories. Tax exemption on outlying islands will actively tap the consumption potential and cooperate with the rectification of the positive wind tourism market, which is expected to gradually achieve the sales target of 100 billion in a healthy business model.
In 2021, China’s tourism recovered steadily, and the Winter Olympics linked ice and snow tourism became hot: the Ministry of culture and tourism released the data of China’s tourism in 2021, realizing a total of 3.246 billion tourists and a total revenue of 2.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 12.8% and + 31% respectively. Ctrip data show that on February 4, the search popularity of the keyword “Winter Olympics” was + 200%, ski ticket orders in the three days before the Spring Festival were + 33% year-on-year, and ski hotel orders were + 52% year-on-year. Before the festival, the three departments jointly issued the construction plan of Beijing Zhangjiakou sports culture tourism belt. Ice and snow tourism may not only take the Winter Olympics as an opportunity to heat up in the short term, but the integration of ice and snow sports tourism is expected to develop continuously in the medium and long term.
The sales volume of prefabricated vegetables increased during the Spring Festival, and many factors supported the incremental space: according to Taobao’s 2022 annual dinner report, semi-finished prefabricated vegetables increased by + 181% year-on-year on the eve of the Spring Festival. The daily excellent fresh platform predicts that high-end prefabricated dishes will become a new choice for consumption. Its consumption data shows that the sales of prefabricated dishes increased by 2.8 times from New Year’s Eve to the second day of the new year. The Spring Festival and the epidemic have a short-term catalytic effect on the growth of prefabricated dishes. The rise of the population living alone and the training cycle of chefs are slower than the fast growth of catering, which is expected to bring long-term growth space for prefabricated dishes.
Investment suggestions:
Tax exemption on outlying islands, seize the opportunity of Spring Festival consumption and help the healthy development of business forms. During the Spring Festival, the Department of Commerce jointly launched various preferential activities with duty-free operators to promote tourism consumption during the peak period, cooperate with the rectification of the positive wind tourism market, and China tax exemption, as a leader, has high-quality growth in the medium and long term. In 2021, China’s tourism will recover steadily, and the Winter Olympics linked ice and snow tourism will be hot. The Spring Festival accelerated the growth of sales of prefabricated vegetables, and many factors supported the incremental space. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) and other hotels, scenic spots and tourism comprehensive service targets in the logic of cultural and tourism recovery; It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises that are good for the release of ice and snow tourism demand.
Risk tips:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
