Key investment points:
The performance of nonferrous metals sector was weak in January. In January, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.65% and the nonferrous metals sector fell 11.13%, ranking eighth from bottom among 30 industries, with weak performance. In the Dicer industry, gold (- 1.12%), aluminum (- 8.41%), nickel cobalt tin antimony (- 9.71%), lead zinc (- 10.17%), copper (- 10.46%), tungsten (- 14.32%), lithium (- 14.64%), other rare metals (- 14.94%), rare earth and magnetic materials (- 18.88%). In terms of non-ferrous sector stocks, 10 rose and 104 fell.
Base metal (copper): copper supply increased and copper price fluctuated at a high level. In January, the tight supply of global copper mines improved, and China's refined copper imports fell significantly year-on-year in 2021; The output of China's copper smelting enterprises increased month on month, and the processing fee of copper concentrate rebounded; In the downstream industry markets, the power grid and automobile industry perform well. It is suggested to pay attention to the increase of copper consumption in power grid investment; The air conditioning industry has entered the traditional off-season, and the output has declined slightly; There are still downside risks in the high volatility of copper prices, and the Fed's table contraction expectation needs continuous attention.
Precious metals (gold): the risk aversion of all parties has increased, and the gold price is running at a high level. In January, Comex gold fell 1.59% and Shanghai gold price fell 1.05%. Although the expectation of the Federal Reserve's shrinking table is approaching, factors such as the impact of covid-19 epidemic, continued high inflation in the United States, intensified geopolitical conflicts, sovereign debt crisis and market correction still provide some support for the gold price. The total gold reserves of central banks around the world continue to increase and the gold price is running at a high level.
Small metals (tungsten and molybdenum): tungsten and molybdenum concentrate prices rose slightly, and downstream consumption increased month on month. In January, tungsten concentrate increased by 3.59%, ammonium paratungstate increased by 3.79%, molybdenum concentrate increased by 3.45% and ferromolybdenum increased by 4.52%. The prosperity of nonferrous metals and iron and steel industries rebounded, the lack of core eased, and the consumption of cemented carbide continued to improve; The production of stainless steel and special steel continued to operate at a high level.
Small metals (cobalt lithium): in 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased greatly, and the demand for cobalt lithium was strong. In 2021, the output of cobalt lithium increased year-on-year, and the price rose sharply. Among them, the average spot price of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased by 177% and 1.17% year-on-year. Imports of major lithium cobalt products increased year-on-year. In the context of the high prospect of new energy vehicle manufacturing, we are optimistic about the long-term development of cobalt lithium.
Investment suggestion: by the end of January, the PE of non-ferrous sector was 23.00 times, that of precious metal sector was 20.64 times, that of industrial metal sector was 16.48 times, and that of rare metal sector was 33.55 times. The A-share market was in shock adjustment in December, and the nonferrous metals sector basically synchronized with the big market. Affected by the expectation of liquidity tightening, the wait-and-see and risk aversion of all parties' funds increased, and the gold price operated at a high level; High copper price shocks have downside risks; The high prospect of new energy vehicle manufacturing supports the output and price of cobalt and lithium, gives the rating of "synchronous market" to the non-ferrous metal industry, and suggests closing the gold, cobalt and lithium sectors.
Risk tips: (1) macroeconomic downturn accelerated; (2) The global covid-19 epidemic worsened.
