"Both fish and bear's paws can be obtained". Starting from the safety of smart mines, reducing people and improving efficiency will help to comprehensively improve the fundamentals. The predecessor of smart mine is mine informatization, which has not had much waves in decades of development. The core reason is that the requirements of compliance and safety alone are not enough to drive the rise of demand side. The "three mountains" trend of policy promotion + Huawei's admission + doubled demand from downstream customers will completely reconstruct the industry logic, improve "compliance safety" to a new level of "safety = efficiency", and get rid of the previous cost side based safety construction. While intelligence can effectively reduce people and improve efficiency, it can minimize the occurrence of safety events, and form a perfect answer sheet of "having both fish and bear's paw" on both sides of "compliance inspection" and "cost reduction".
The policy defines the grading and classification, and the market verifies the necessity of intelligent mines. The construction of intellectualization is not achieved overnight. Many factors such as different geology and different production capacity put forward corresponding requirements for mine intellectualization. China's coal mines are staggered and complex as a whole, and the information construction includes hundreds of systems and corresponding products. According to the code for the construction of intelligent mines, the intelligent construction of coal mines can be divided into three levels: primary, medium and high, so as to provide corresponding guidelines for different mines. Specifically, the three-level classification is based on the collaborative linkage of applications. Traditionally, most intelligent mines in China are in the primary stage of single application. With the admission of Huawei and the rising demand of downstream customers, the integrated collaborative application of intermediate intelligence has become the mainstream, and individual demonstration mines have stepped into the path of advanced intelligence. It can be seen that under the guidance of the humanization of the mine construction and the continuous improvement of its own functions in 2020, it is expected to accelerate the construction of intelligent projects and reduce its own benchmark.
The sea of stars in the trillion market and the progress from coal mines to non coal mines. The intelligent construction of coal mine mountain is basically similar to that of non coal mine. They all face problems such as multi page mining, poor working environment, unstable equipment and so on.
In view of the safety problems of the two types of mines, the State Bureau of mine safety supervision was established in 2020, starting from coal mines and gradually extending to all types of mines. To this end, we sorted out and predicted the corresponding market space, and the core data are as follows:
According to the coal mine data disclosed by the National Bureau of statistics in 2019, the total number of coal mines is 4997.
Core assumptions:
We predict the corresponding construction prices of different output and initial, medium and high-level intellectualization according to the public data such as mining and bidding network;
The intelligent construction of coal mine needs both software and hardware, including the intelligent construction of a number of comprehensive systems. As a whole, there are many kinds and construction difficulties. Combined with the data of smart enabled coal industry new trillion market by Ernst & Young consulting, "Based on the line of 1.2 million tons and 5 million tons, it is divided into three production capacity levels. It is estimated that the cost of intelligent transformation and upgrading of single mines in existing production mines is about 149 million yuan to 263 million yuan, while the cost of single mine transformation of new mines is about 195 million yuan to 385 million yuan." We predict the different prices of intelligent construction of individual mines under the three conditions of pessimism, neutrality and optimism;
Eliminate the mining vehicles and coal mining equipment that account for a large proportion in the production link;
According to the national readjustment of the "double carbon" policy, the total number of coal mines is expected to remain unchanged for a long time.
Based on the above core assumptions, under the pessimistic, neutral and optimistic conditions, the market scale of smart mines in the next 10 years is calculated as 460.770 billion yuan, 546.676 billion yuan and 657.55 billion yuan respectively.
According to the data of people's daily, by 2021, there are about 32000 non coal mines in China, about six times the volume of coal mines. Considering the construction difficulty, similarity and the gradual increase of competitors, it is conservatively estimated that it is about the similar market space predicted by pessimism, that is, 400-500 billion, and the overall intelligent space of coal mines and non coal mines is expected to be about trillion market.
The five links of smart mine are independent of each other and mapped to companies in the industry, focusing on the route of specialization and deepening. The production links of the mine include design and planning, excavation, mining, lifting transportation and production assistance. Each link contains dozens to hundreds of products and systems, and the product form and use are very different. Companies in the industry basically adhere to the route of specialization and deepening to deeply cultivate one or two links, with Chongqing Mas Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(300275) as a typical representative.
Chongqing Mas Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(300275) focus on mine safety for more than 20 years, and rapidly expand product forms and corresponding links under the high scenery of smart mine. Taking caojiatan as an example, excluding coal mining vehicles, tunneling vehicles and other equipment, the overall intelligent total is about 400 million yuan, while Chongqing Mas Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(300275) has won more than 180 million yuan since 2017-2022, accounting for more than 40%. Through combing the products and systems, we conservatively estimate that the company accounts for about 25-30% of the construction amount of intelligent transformation.
Investment suggestion: the "demand + supply" of the upstream and downstream of the mine flies together, combined with the policy to promote the formation of a positive "chemical reaction". Huawei's admission further determines that the high-profile atmosphere of the intelligent mine has come. Combined with the characteristics of "rich coal, poor oil and less gas" in China, while coal has the characteristics of strategic reserve, refined and safe production and transportation will be the main line in the future. Highlight Chongqing Mas Sci.& Tech.Co.Ltd(300275) , Hefei Gocom Information Technology Co.Ltd(688367) , Beijing Longruan Technologies Inc(688078) and Uroica Precision Information Engineering Co.Ltd(300099) ; It is suggested to pay attention to listed companies such as China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited(688009) , Traffic Control Technology Co.Ltd(688015) and Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) .
Risk warning: the promotion of intelligent mine is not as expected; The fluctuation of upstream coal price brings systemic risk; Repeated outbreaks pose the risk of delivery delays.
