On February 8, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the management of real estate loan concentration, which made it clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects were not included in the management of real estate loan concentration. The purpose of this document is to encourage financial institutions to increase credit for guaranteed rental housing projects, help stimulate investment, improve demand, maintain the steady development of the real estate market, and benefit the bank's credit demand and asset quality. The public release of the document may be more intended to increase confidence and emphasize the determination to stabilize growth.
Reiterate their views and firmly optimistic about the bank market. Steady growth and steady real estate policies have confidence and determination, and have room and tools to make efforts. The policies will continue to make efforts to ensure steady growth and steady real estate take effect until the economic and real estate data and expectations improve.
Fully optimistic about the industry. Individual stocks recommend high-quality regional banks, such as Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , etc., and core targets are continuously recommended: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) .
Get rid of the restrictions on the concentration of housing loans, promote guaranteed rental housing investment and alleviate the pressure on real estate financing
The Ministry of housing and urban rural development said in January that the supply of affordable rental housing will be expanded during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and 6.5 million new units (rooms) are preliminarily planned in 40 key cities. In 2020, the Supervision issued documents to restrict the upper limit of the proportion of bank housing related loans. From the semi annual report of listed banks, some bank indicators still exceed the standard and need to be further rectified. In terms of the proportion, at present, the proportion of affordable housing development loans of financial institutions in loans is low (RMB loan caliber, about 2.45% at the end of the third quarter of 2021), accounting for about 9.03% of the balance of real estate loans.
The regulation makes it clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans. On the one hand, it aims to encourage financial institutions to increase the credit supply of indemnificatory rental housing projects, and the subsequent supervision may continue to implement financing support policies to support the construction of indemnificatory housing and the development of long-term rental housing market. On the other hand, it is conducive to alleviate the financing pressure of real estate loan concentration on the real estate industry.
Favorable bank credit demand, bank credit extension or improvement under the protection policy
According to the economic and financial data of December, under the influence of multiple factors such as the epidemic in many places and real estate policies, China's credit demand was still weak in December. However, since December, the interest rate and reserve requirement reduction policies have been implemented one after another, and the marginal easing of house purchase policies in some cities has released the positive signal of supporting the economy with policies. We believe that the bottom of the real estate financing regulatory policy has been clear, and the real estate credit risk has been mitigated. It is expected that the policy will continue to focus on the effectiveness of credit easing and economic trend, which will help protect the fundamentals of banks and maintain stability.
The clarification and adjustment of the caliber of guaranteed rental housing loans also shows the continuous force of the steady growth policy, which is good for bank credit demand. Since January, especially at the end of January, the yield of bills has risen. We believe that in addition to the seasonal and transactional factors of cross-year capital, it also reflects the marginal improvement of bank credit under the force of steady growth policy. We pay attention to the recent release of financial data in January.
Risk warning: large-scale outbreak of real estate default risk; The economy fell sharply, exceeding expectations.
