The national tourism data of the Spring Festival in 2022 is slightly lower than that of last year. From the area where the data are released, the tourism data of Sichuan Province, Hubei Province, Jilin Province, Haikou City and other places are bright. The proportion of long-distance and short-distance travel in China is about 2:8, and the travel radius and recreation radius rise one after another, showing an upward trend of destination activity. The folk characteristics of rural tourism are in line with the flavor of the year, so there is a high growth in many places and even in areas where the overall tourism data of the Spring Festival has decreased, such as Beijing. The release of the Winter Olympics effect has led to a sustained and high increase in the popularity of ice and snow tourism during the holidays. Hainan tourism is in the peak season, and the tax-free operators have combined concessions with theme activities. The total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores have reached 1.983 billion yuan. To normalize the epidemic prevention and control, it is suggested to actively allocate leading cultural and tourism enterprises and maintain the industry’s stronger than the market rating.
The overall situation of China’s tourism is stable, and the trend of short-range local tourism is obvious. During the seven days of the Spring Festival, 251 million Chinese tourists visited the country, yoy-2.0%, which recovered to 73.9% in the same period in 2019 according to comparable standards; China’s tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, yoy-3.9%, recovering to 56.3% in the same period in 2019. Compared with the recovery of 2019, the number of tourists and income were + 3.8% and – 3.6% respectively compared with the recovery of 2021 National Day golden week, and the overall situation was stable; The tourism situation in Sichuan Province, Hubei Province, Jilin Province and other places is bright, and the number of visitors and income have increased by more than 10%. According to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, intra provincial tourism accounts for 78.3%, and the trend of short distance tourism is obvious. The average travel radius of tourists is yoy-1.5%, and the average recreation radius of the destination is yoy + 9.2%, showing a slight contraction of the travel radius and an increase in the activity of the destination.
Rural tourism shows a reverse trend, and the Winter Olympics effect drives the high growth of ice and snow tourism. Rural tourism in places where the overall tourism data has not increased, such as Beijing, still shows a reverse growth trend, and drives the growth of accommodation. Ctrip data shows that the order volume of rural hotels has more than doubled compared with the Spring Festival last year. With the continuous optimization of rural planning and the promotion of Rural Revitalization Strategy, the trend of invigorating the village with tourism is expected to be further highlighted in the future. During the holiday, 39.7% of tourists participated in ice and snow tourism projects. In addition, according to Ctrip’s statistics, the booking volume of ski theme hotels from February 5 was + 54% year-on-year. The opportunity of the Winter Olympics is combined with the release of a number of favorable documents since the beginning of the year, such as the list of ski resorts, high-quality ice and snow tourism routes and the construction of Beijing Zhangjiakou sports and cultural tourism belt. The supply side and demand side jointly strive to promote the long-term growth of ice and snow tourism.
Tax exemption on outlying islands, seize the opportunity of peak season, and the sales volume of Spring Festival hit a new high. The duty-free sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan reached 1.82 billion yuan, 277800 people bought duty-free shopping, and 1651700 pieces of duty-free goods were purchased. The duty-free sales increased by about 30% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival last year, and achieved a high growth under the condition of high base. Sanya Phoenix Airport transported passengers yoy + 32.4%, and the number of tourists and income in Haikou increased by 19.65% and 31.77% year-on-year respectively. The recovery of tourism in Hainan and the active promotion of concessions and activities by duty-free shops on outlying islands laid a good beginning for achieving the goal of 100 billion yuan in the whole year.
Investment suggestions:
The overall situation of Chinese tourism during the Spring Festival holiday is stable, and short-range local tourism is still dominant. The reverse growth trend of rural tourism is bright. The Winter Olympics effect is superimposed on the favorable policies, which together drive the high growth of ice and snow tourism and drive the income of hot springs of surrounding hotels. The sales volume of tax-free Spring Festival in outlying islands hit a new high. The tax-free business entities seize the opportunity of the peak consumption season and actively expand channels and scale. The tax-free in outlying islands is expected to continue to attract overseas consumption and achieve the annual goal of 100 billion, and the leading effect of China tax exemption is expected to be further highlighted. The strict prevention and control policy virtually increases the cost of travel, which is the main reason for the slight decline of spring festival tourism. With the increase of vaccination and the normalization of prevention and control, the recovery logic of the cultural and tourism industry is not disturbed by the factors of short-term epidemic distribution, and remains stronger than the market rating. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and recommend hotels and scenic spots in the restoration of culture and tourism; It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises that are good for the release of ice and snow tourism demand.
Main risks of rating:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
During the Spring Festival, the national tourism situation showed a stable trend, and the tourism data in some areas increased brightly. On the whole, according to the calculation of the Ministry of culture and tourism, 251 million Chinese tourists traveled in the seven days of the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and recovered to 73.9% in the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to a comparable standard; China’s tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, which recovered to 56.3% in the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019. The recovery of tourist arrivals and revenue in 2019 was + 3.8% and – 3.6% respectively compared with the recovery of the National Day golden week in 2021. The overall situation was stable. The number of tourists and income in China decreased slightly compared with that in 2021. The main reason is that the epidemic situation in some regions is still repeated, and China’s inter provincial tourism strictly implements the “circuit breaker” mechanism. In addition, the necessary links of travel such as nucleic acid detection and short-term isolation virtually increase the cost of travel. Judging from the regions where the tourism data are released, the tourism situation in Sichuan Province, Hubei Province, Jilin Province, Haikou City and other places is bright, and the number of receptions and tourism revenue have increased by more than 10%.
Rural tourism and peripheral tourism markets are hot, and the travel radius and recreation radius rise one after another. It is worth noting that rural tourism shows a reverse growth trend in areas where the overall tourism data do not show a growth trend, such as Beijing and Hunan Province. Meanwhile, Ctrip’s “2022 Spring Festival Tourism summary report” shows that the order volume of rural hotels has more than doubled compared with that during the Spring Festival last year. As of February 5, the average daily order volume of Ctrip Resort Farm series products has increased by 10% month on month. The growth of rural tourism is mainly due to its folk customs and strong annual flavor, which are in line with the theme of the Spring Festival holiday, the continuous optimization of rural planning and the promotion of Rural Revitalization Strategy. The trend of revitalizing the village by tourism is expected to be further highlighted in the future. In addition, the trend of short-range local travel during the Spring Festival is obvious. According to the data of the Ministry of culture and tourism, the proportion of intra provincial travel and inter provincial travel during the Spring Festival holiday is 78.3% and 21.7% respectively; The report of China Tourism Research Institute shows that the average travel radius of tourists is 131.8 kilometers, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival last year; The average recreational radius of the destination is 8.3km, an increase of 9.2% over the same period of the Spring Festival last year, showing a slight contraction in the travel radius and an increase in the activity of the destination; Ctrip data show that more than 80% of tourists choose to visit scenic spots locally during the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, and the ticket proportion of scenic spots in the province is as high as 82%. Tongcheng travel pointed out that some long-term travel needs have been released before the Spring Festival, which is also one of the reasons why travel consumption is concentrated on short trips during the holiday. In addition, the summary report on the 2022 Tiger Spring Festival travel released by donkey mother tourism pointed out that during the Spring Festival this year, many scenic spots have vigorously developed the night travel economy by holding characteristic lantern fairs, becoming a hot destination, especially an engine to attract residents of surrounding cities, provinces and cities to punch in.
With the release of the Winter Olympics effect, the popularity of ice and snow tourism continues to increase during the Spring Festival. According to the report of China Tourism Research Institute, 39.7% of tourists participated in ice and snow tourism projects during the holidays. Ctrip data show that air ticket bookings to the three northeastern provinces have increased by more than 50% year-on-year. As of February 5, the bookings of ski theme hotels during the Spring Festival have increased by 54% year-on-year, and the ticket orders of ice, snow and ski scenic spots have increased by nearly 40% year-on-year. The number of Spring Festival snow field tickets released by qunar platform increased compared with the same period last year. Among the top ten lists, the south snow field occupied five seats, and the ice and snow tourism showed a balanced trend from north to south.
From the beginning of the new year to the Spring Festival, a number of favorable policies for ice and snow tourism have been issued successively: the Ministry of culture and tourism has issued 10 excellent routes such as “ice and Snow Beijing Zhang” and “Winter Olympic city”, which are national excellent routes for ice and snow tourism; The Ministry of culture and tourism and the State Administration of sports issued the “list of national ski resorts”, including 12 ski resorts; The Ministry of culture and tourism, the national development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of sports jointly issued the construction plan of Beijing Zhangjiakou sports culture tourism belt; On the eve of the Spring Festival, the State Administration of sports and the Ministry of culture and tourism released the “2022 Spring Festival holiday sports tourism boutique routes”, including 14 Spring Festival holiday ice and snow themed sports tourism boutique routes in Beijing, Liaoning, Jilin, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Xinjiang. With the official opening of the Winter Olympic Games during the Spring Festival, the popularity of ice and snow tourism around the country is rising in the event atmosphere, and the continuous upgrading of ice and snow tourism products and consumer demand stimulated by policies, promoting ice and snow tourism has become a highlight during the Spring Festival.
Tax exemption on outlying islands, seize the opportunity of peak season, and improve sales through both activities and concessions. According to Hainan Daily, from January 30 to February 5, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in the province were 1.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%. Among them, the tax-free sales volume was 1.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153%; 277800 people went shopping duty-free, a year-on-year increase of 128%; The number of duty-free items purchased was 1651700, with a year-on-year increase of 143% (the year-on-year increase is calculated as compared with the same period from January 30 to February 5 last year, rather than the same period of the Spring Festival last year. Through calculation, the total sales and sales of duty-free stores increased by about 30% compared with the same period of the Spring Festival last year). The Spring Festival is the traditional peak season for tourism in Hainan. According to the civil aviation resources network, Sanya Phoenix Airport transported 447000 passengers and 2829 guaranteed flights from January 31 to February 6, an increase of 32.4% and 29.1% respectively compared with the golden week of the Spring Festival last year; Sanya ranks first among the popular destinations for Chinese tourists during the Spring Festival announced by Ctrip; According to qunar platform data, Sanya has been ranked as the city with the highest number of hotel reservations for the Spring Festival in China for two consecutive years; According to the data of Haikou culture and Tourism Bureau, the number of tourists and income during the Spring Festival increased by 19.65% and 31.77% respectively year-on-year. In addition, the “Haiyi office” platform has opened a special duty-free zone on the home page for the convenience of consumers. In addition, various duty-free operators in Hainan have actively launched various promotional activities and Spring Festival themed activities to attract consumers, activate the duty-free market of outlying islands, jointly grasp the holiday peak, tap incremental opportunities, and lay a good start for Hainan duty-free to achieve the annual sales target of 100 billion.
Investment advice
The overall situation of Chinese tourism during the Spring Festival holiday is stable, and short-range local tourism is still dominant. The reverse growth trend of rural tourism is bright. The Winter Olympics effect is superimposed on the favorable policies, which together drive the high growth of ice and snow tourism and drive the income of hot springs of surrounding hotels. The sales volume of tax-free Spring Festival in outlying islands hit a new high. The tax-free business entities seize the opportunity of the peak consumption season and actively expand channels and scale. The tax-free in outlying islands is expected to continue to attract overseas consumption and achieve the annual goal of 100 billion, and the leading effect of China tax exemption is expected to be further highlighted. The strict prevention and control policy virtually increases the cost of travel, which is the main reason for the slight decline of spring festival tourism. With the increase of vaccination and the normalization of prevention and control, the recovery logic of the cultural and tourism industry is not disturbed by the factors of short-term epidemic distribution, and remains stronger than the market rating. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and recommend hotels and scenic spots in the restoration of culture and tourism; It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises that are good for the release of ice and snow tourism demand.
Risk tips
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
