Core view:
Condiment: the dynamic marketing continues to improve, and the inflection point of the industry is approaching. Overall, the Spring Festival demand continues the marginal improvement trend, and the industry is in the bottom recovery range. We expect that the seasoning channel is expected to achieve a high double-digit growth before the Spring Festival, but the growth rate of 22Q1 listed companies is relatively stable. From the terminal point of view, the dynamic sales of the industry continued to improve. On the one hand, the overall age of goods decreased month on month, but the price increase and goods preparation promoted the age of Haitian goods to rise slightly; On the other hand, the promotion is moderate. Haitian successfully transmitted the price increase to Ka terminal through promotion actions, and the price increase of Chubang has not been completed. Looking forward to the future, we are optimistic that the industry will usher in a fundamental turning point after 22q2, mainly due to: 1) the epidemic is gradually controllable and the retail & Catering demand recovers gradually; 2) 22h2 packaging materials and soybean prices may gradually fall, and the cost side pressure is expected to gradually ease; 3) The contribution of price increase to performance elasticity is expected to be realized quarterly.
Quick frozen food: the dynamic sales are relatively stable and the promotion is moderate. 21h2 with the relief of the high base pressure, the C-end demand for quick-frozen food ushered in a marginal improvement. According to the commercial supermarket data, the sales volume of quick-frozen food in November 2021 was – 4% year-on-year, which was significantly narrower than that of 21h1. Combined with the terminal situation, due to the relative improvement of the epidemic situation in the Spring Festival of 2022 compared with last year, the dynamic sales of quick-frozen food benefiting from home consumption decreased slightly, but the overall improvement trend continued. In East China and North China, the overall dynamic sales are stable, and the age of goods is at a moderate level. Anjing and Sanquan are about 1 ~ 3 months old, of which the age of goods of many products in North China is only 1 month. We judge that the reason is that the strict epidemic control in Beijing leads to more local consumption demand for the new year. In the southwest region, the overall dynamic sales are weak, and the age of goods is relatively higher. Anjing and Sanquan are about 1 ~ 4 months, and there are many promotions and discounts.
Prefabricated dishes: the epidemic situation is superimposed on the peak season of the Spring Festival, and the demand for catalytic C-end is strong. On the whole, the C-end consumption of prefabricated dishes for the Spring Festival in 2022 presents two characteristics: regional differentiation (East China > other regions) and channel differentiation (online > offline). Online & new retail channels are booming and become the first entrance for prefabricated dishes to enter the C-end market. Platforms such as Taobao, Jingdong fresh food and dingdong buy vegetables have achieved high double-digit growth before the Spring Festival this year. The dynamic sales of offline channels are relatively stable. East China is more mature than North China and southwest China. The overall distribution area is limited, there are fewer categories & brands, and there are no large national single products. The East China market is relatively mature, with several regional brands and a variety of dishes (Sichuan food + Huaiyang food + Guangdong food), but the dynamic sales situation is relatively stable, and the goods age of some products is high, nearly 8 months. North China and southwest China are in the introduction period. The survey found that Ka and chain supermarkets have only 2 ~ 3 brands, and the dishes are relatively single. The dynamic sales are better than those in East China, and the goods age is about 2 ~ 5 months.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, we believe that the catering industry chain represented by condiments has basically completed the bottom building process. With the continuous recovery of terminal demand + the gradual decline of cost pressure + the gradual conduction and landing of price increase, the industry is expected to usher in a real fundamental turning point after 22q2 and realize double-click. In the long run, with the continuous increase of rent and labor cost and the superposition of factors of population structure change, compound condiments, quick-frozen food and prefabricated vegetables enjoy broad growth space. At present, the enterprises that have been laid out will have the first mover advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (603288), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872), Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.Ltd(600305) (600305), Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) (603317), Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345).
Risk warning: demand recovery is less than expected; The cost increase is higher than expected; Food safety incidents.
