Event: Recently, international oil prices continued to rise, and Brent crude oil futures once hit US $94 / barrel, reaching a new high since October 2014.
This round of rising oil prices should be mainly due to the relationship between supply and demand. Under the background of global covid-19 epidemic and carbon neutralization policy, the oil and gas industry has a certain impact on both supply and demand. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that the global crude oil consumption in 2019 was 99.8 million barrels / day, while that in 2021 was 96.2 million barrels / day. With the mild recovery of the global economy, the IEA expects the global crude oil consumption to reach 99.53 million barrels / day in 2022, which will exceed the level in 2019; Compared with the supply side, the number of active crude oil drilling in North America is still hovering at the bottom. After reaching the bottom of 178 in August 2020, it slowly rebounded to the current 497, while the number of drilling remained at 700-800 during 2017-2020. At that time, the oil price remained at the center of $60-70 / barrel. Therefore, on the whole, the contraction of the supply side is more likely to be the main factor leading to the current round of oil price rise.
High oil prices drive production increase, and global oil and gas capital expenditure is expected to increase significantly in 2022. As the tight supply and demand leads to high oil prices, the rebalancing of oil prices can be achieved only when the demand is relatively stable. At the same time, under high oil prices, economic drivers will also increase industrial capital expenditure. According to the China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) strategic outlook, it is estimated that the total global upstream exploration and development capital expenditure in 2022 will increase by 24% compared with 2021, and the total global upstream offshore exploration and development capital expenditure in 2022 will increase by 15% compared with 2021. Halliburton executives said that the expenditure of North American oil drilling companies may increase by more than 25% this year, while the expenditure of overseas exploration companies will also increase slightly by about 15%. Lium LLC, a data analysis company, predicts that US shale oil production will "boom again" this year.
China's energy security issues still drive the development of the industry. In 2020, the external dependence of Petrochina Company Limited(601857) and natural gas rose to 73% and 43% respectively. Under the background of high oil prices, the problem of energy security is more prominent. On February 4, China and Russia signed an agreement on Russia's supply of 100 million tons of oil to China through Kazakhstan for a period of 10 years. At the same time, China and Russia signed a second long-term natural gas contract for 30 years. Therefore, on the whole, only by vigorously exploiting conventional oil and gas resources and unconventional resources such as shale oil and gas can we further ensure national energy security.
Give the oil and gas engineering industry a "buy" rating, focusing on Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Nanjing Develop Advanced Manufacturing Co.Ltd(688377) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Sinopec Oilfield Equipment Corporation(000852) , Harbin Boshi Automation Co.Ltd(002698) , Sf Diamond Co.Ltd(300179) and so on.
Risk tip: the international oil price has fallen sharply, the macro demand is less than expected, and the industrial output is less than expected.
