Industry perspective:
Wind power generation: the installed capacity of offshore wind power is 16.9gw, and the offshore wind power is expected to remain prosperous during the 14th five year plan. In the rush loading environment, the installed capacity of offshore wind power in 2021 is 16.9gw, exceeding market expectations. Considering the current supply capacity of China’s offshore wind power industry chain, we expect that similar to the rush installation of onshore wind power in 2020, some offshore projects may not be fully connected to the grid, and will continue to be promoted in the first half of 2022. In addition, in the last year, the price of offshore wind turbines has dropped significantly, and the current bidding price has been below 4000 yuan, which will help support the decline of the cost of offshore wind power. Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian, Zhejiang and other coastal provinces have planned more than 50gw offshore wind power projects during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is expected that the demand for offshore wind power will be fully released during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and the industry will maintain a high boom.
Power grid investment: the national development and Reform Commission stated that infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance, and a new round of UHV project construction will be ushered in during the “14th five year plan”. Xinhua News Agency reported on February 5 that the relevant person in charge of the national development and Reform Commission said a few days ago that infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance and 102 major projects in the 14th five year plan should be solidly promoted. We will promote the construction of new infrastructure and increase support for the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries to high-end, intelligent and green. UHV can effectively support the large-scale optimal allocation of clean energy and help achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. It is expected that China will carry out a new round of UHV project construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Focus on listed companies such as UHV industrial chain Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Henan Pinggao Electric Co.Ltd(600312) .
New energy vehicles: in 2022, new energy vehicles are still in a period of rapid growth, and the delivery of new and old car making forces is growing rapidly. In 2021, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 3.5 million, 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year. We expect that the new energy vehicles will still be in a period of rapid growth in 2022, the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5.5 million in 2022, and the competition in the new energy vehicle industry will become white hot in 2022. From the perspective of enterprise competition, At present, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market has formed a pattern of “two super powers and more powerful forces, and new forces are rising”. The sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) and new forces of car making continued to improve in January. We believe that new energy vehicles have the attribute of science and technology consumption, and their valuation will have the dual logic of science and technology and consumption, so they can get a higher valuation; Promote or reshape the market competition pattern of intelligent electrification; Traditional car companies pursue brand upward in the layout of new models in 2022 and layout high-end intelligent electric vehicles; The brand preparation of pure electric vehicles of traditional car enterprises has been gradually improved, and the brand of new energy vehicles is expected to restructure the brand strength and valuation system through spin off and listing. It is suggested to give priority to the traditional automobile enterprises with strong transformation, such as SAIC, GAC and great wall.
Important industry information:
The United States announced that the photovoltaic import tariff was extended for 4 years, and the threshold was increased from 2.5gw to 5GW. The White House announced a tariff exemption for imports from the United States and neighboring countries from February to April. The new photovoltaic import tariff policy will take effect on February 7.
One week market performance:
Industry performance: among the 28 Shenwan level industries, the electrical equipment industry fell by 1.92%, ranking second; The utility industry fell 5.30% this week, ranking 18th.
Performance of sub sectors: the sub sectors ranked among the top three in terms of increase in apoplectic parts, lithium batteries, cable parts and others, with 11.91%, 1.65% and 0.05% respectively; Storage batteries and other batteries, other power supply equipment III and comprehensive electric energy services ranked among the last three, with – 7.49%, – 7.66% and – 9.30% respectively.
Gains of individual stocks: the sub sectors of apoplexy parts, lithium batteries, cable parts and other gains ranked among the top three, with 11.91%, 1.65% and 0.05% respectively; Storage batteries and other batteries, other power supply equipment III and comprehensive electric energy services ranked among the last three, with – 7.49%, – 7.66% and – 9.30% respectively.
Risk tips: macroeconomic changes, industry policies are less than expected, and market competition is more than expected
