Key points:
Two weeks before the Spring Festival, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Index (CSI) fell by 300.3% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Index (CSI) fell by 2021.2%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Index (CSI) fell by 300.3% in 2021-2024.2% two weeks before the Spring Festival. Non bank finance (Shenwan) fell 2.7%, ranking 5 / 28, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.7 percentage points; Among them, the brokerage index fell 2.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.1 percentage points.
The top five securities companies were: Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (+ 11.4%), Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) (+ 6.4%), Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) (+ 5.7%), Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (+ 4.2%) and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) (+ 2.3%). The top five securities companies were: China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (- 8.3%), Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) (- 8.4%), Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) (- 8.7%), Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) (- 8.8%) and Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) (- 9.2%).
Industry Week data: transactions in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell before the Spring Festival
Brokerage business: in the week before the Spring Festival (2022.1.24-2022.1.28), the daily average stock base turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 936.3 billion yuan, down 20.9% month on month, and the market turnover fell significantly.
Investment banking: equity financing scale of 46.7 billion yuan (mom + 80%) in the week before the Spring Festival (2022.1.24-2022.1.28); The IPO Financing scale was 22.9 billion yuan (mom + 109%), and the refinancing scale was 23.8 billion yuan (mom + 58%). In terms of the number of companies, a total of 22 companies conducted equity financing in the week before the Spring Festival, including 12 IPO and 10 refinancing. Capital intermediary business: on the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the balance of margin trading and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1713.2 billion yuan, down – 3.8% month on month; The balance of the two financial institutions accounted for 2.48% of the total circulating market value of a shares, and the balance of the two financial institutions continued to decline. 418.1 billion shares were pledged, accounting for 5.63% of the total share capital, and the pledge scale continued to decline.
Industry highlights
(1) according to the information on the official website of the CSRC on January 28, the CSRC has formulated the legislative work plan for 2022, including the implementation of the decision and deployment of the central economic work conference on the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system, and the formulation of regulations such as the administrative measures for the registration of initial public offerings and the administrative measures for the registration of securities issuance of listed companies.
(2) according to the data of the fund industry association, the scale of non monetary public funds held by the top 100 fund sales institutions in 2021q4 is 8.3 trillion (mom + 8.67%), and the scale of stock mixed public funds is 6.5 trillion (mom + 4.93%). From the perspective of the types of consignment institutions, the proportion of bank ownership gradually decreased, and the proportion of third-party institutions continued to increase.
Investment advice
In terms of policies, the steady growth policy continues to work, liquidity tends to be loose, and market transactions are expected to continue to be active. Fully implement the registration system, accelerate the promotion, and benefit the securities business sector. From the perspective of valuation, the current valuation of Pb in the securities industry is 1.6x, which is in the 20% quantile of Pb in recent 10 years. The safety margin of the sector is high, and it is expected to usher in the valuation repair market. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of head securities companies under the transformation of wealth management and maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk; The risk of sharp decline in the secondary market; The risk of intensified industry competition; The risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations.
