Event: on February 8, the two ministries and commissions issued the “0208 notice” on housing loan concentration, which made it clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects would not be included in the management of real estate loan concentration.
Under the new regulations, not only affordable rental housing loans can be increased, but also the credit line of conventional commercial real estate can be appropriately vacated. Under the “0208 notice”, for banks that do not exceed the standard, they can release the credit line for conventional real estate; for banks that exceed the standard, the pressure reduction task is reduced, which is equivalent to increasing the credit line for conventional real estate in a disguised form.
The real estate industry is wide and credit is frequent. In January, the five-year LPR was reduced by 10bp, or stimulate the demand for housing consumption, so as to increase the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to obtain land and start construction, and dredge the real estate credit chain. A number of special financial bonds issued for real estate M & A loans and the implementation of M & A projects, or effectively promote the deregulation of the industry; Since the beginning of the year, many real estate sales policies have also been loosened, which may stimulate the stabilization of the demand side.
Banks get incremental credit demand. Since 21q4, on the basis of accelerating the release of personal mortgage and encouraging M & a loan policies, the concentration “0208 notice” has further opened the space for real estate wide credit, and the credit demand of banks has been effectively supplemented. We believe that with the promotion of broad credit, the sustainability of the bank market will increase.
This notice is of great benefit to the stock bank. As of 21h1, investment promotion and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) are still a certain distance from reaching the standard, so they will be more restrained in the process of credit extension. Since the second half of the year, high-quality joint-stock banks have been suppressed by real estate risks, and the valuation repair is not as good as high-quality urban commercial banks. With the increase of real estate wide credit policy, there is more action on valuation at this time.
Investment suggestion: the bank market continues to expand with the increase of credit
More stable growth policies can be expected, and the bank valuation repair market continues. It is suggested to pay attention to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in high-quality joint-stock banks and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) in high expansion city commercial banks. February gold stock recommendation Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) : undervaluation + demand for convertible bonds + commercial investment layout. The potential of the “commercial bank + investment bank” model has been reflected in the financial report. The endowments of peers and investment banks are more suitable for the era of great wealth management. Capital constraints urge the issuance of convertible bonds, strong willingness to convert shares, low revenue base, complete settlement of bad debts, light loading, and strong willingness and ability to release performance; The current valuation is relatively low. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is lower than expected; Real estate credit risk intensifies; The quality of bank assets declined.
