Core view
Weekly performance of the sector: in the past two weeks, the CSI 300 fell by 3.45%, the gem index fell by 6.75%, and the food and beverage (CITIC) index fell by 2.68%, with a relative return of 0.77% compared with the CSI 300, ranking sixth among the 29 sub industries of CITIC. Among the molecular sectors, the meat products sector fell by 5.90% in the past two weeks, the seasoning sector fell by 7.92%, the snack food sector fell by 8.73%, the quick-frozen food sector fell by 15.43% in the past two weeks, and other food sectors fell by 6.61% in the past two weeks.
Sector valuation level: the PE (TTM) valuation of the food sector this week reached 39.42x, higher than the 8-year average (37.46x) and the 5-year average (38.73x). The valuation of the sector fell this week compared with the previous period. Among them, the PE valuation of meat products / condiments / snack foods / quick-frozen foods / other foods is 23.45/61.12/35.42/40.60/28.40 times respectively, which is -6.78% / 14.67% / - 10.48% / - 56.00% / - 40.44% higher than the average valuation in 8 years.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: 1) in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price rise in the past two weeks are Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) / Wanzhou International / Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) / China Wangwang / Christine; 2) The five stocks with high weekly average turnover rate are Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) / Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) / Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) / Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) / Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) ; 3) The five stocks with high trading volume are Haixin Foods Co.Ltd(002702) / Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) / Wanzhou International / Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) / Yantai Shuangta Food Co.Ltd(002481) .
Industry highlights: 1) FAO: global food prices hit a ten-year high in 2021; 2) The book also obtained an investment of more than 600 million yuan, including Jue Wei and Qia.
Important announcements of food listed companies: 1) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : the Egyptian subsidiary plans to implement the expansion project of yeast products with an annual output of 20000 tons, with an estimated investment of 510 million yuan. It is planned to be completed and put into operation in May 2024 and reach production in 2025; 2) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : the Russian subsidiary plans to implement the expansion project of yeast products with an annual output of 8000 tons, which is planned to be completed and put into trial operation in November 2023 and put into formal production in December. 3) Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) : the company plans to build 150000 tons of 30% concentration hydrolyzed sugar and 6500 tons of crude protein powder production lines in Liuzhou and Chongzuo.
Reminder of important matters in the later stage: convening of the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders: Haoxiangni Health Food Co.Ltd(002582) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Sirio Pharma Co.Ltd(300791) , Shandong Huifa Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603536) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Shanghai Maling Aquarius Co.Ltd(600073) , Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) .
Investment proposal and investment object
Condiments: in the short-term dimension, we suggest to continuously track the sales of condiments at three key time points in the first quarter and grasp potential opportunities that exceed expectations; In the long-term dimension, we still suggest to grasp the relevant investment opportunities of the price increase theme. We suggest to pay attention to the individual stocks that have a smooth implementation of the price increase due to the industry pattern and product characteristics in the second stage and have little impact on the sales volume, as well as the individual stocks that are more likely to fall in the cost in the third stage, have large profit elasticity after the cost fall, and the price increase effect is expected to be retained, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) (600298, buy).
Snack food: 1) it is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks with marginal improvement due to reform (implementation of price increase policy, positive channel expansion, large volume of new products, etc.), such as Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) (002557, buy), Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) (002847, buy), Three Squirrels Inc(300783) (300783, not rated); 2) Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) (603719, overweight) has shown good business robustness under the pressure of the industry in 21 years (for example, the omni-channel layout mode hedges the negative impact of channel fragmentation and channel flow change, and the omni category layout mode suppresses the negative impact of the life cycle of leisure food under the background of diversified demand). It is optimistic about the medium and long-term investment value, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to it.
Quick frozen food: the local epidemic in many places and the weak consumption power of residents cause the weak catering demand in peak season, and the price of raw materials is still high. It is expected that the company's revenue growth and profitability in 21q4-22q1 will face certain short-term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) (001215, not rated) Allocation opportunities after the valuation of Sanquan Food Co.Ltd(002216) (002216, buy) and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) (603345, overweight) fall.
Halogen products: it is suggested to continue to pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (603517, buy). The company's netpoly capital participation company Hefu Laomian plans to be listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. In addition, Jue Wei's fund investment letter also burns Xiancao; Juewe's various investments are focused on its own ability circle, empowered by production capacity and management experience, and the exploration of the second growth curve is stable and far-reaching; It is suggested to pay attention to Zhou Heiya (01458, not rated) who is in the process of franchise and supply chain optimization.
Baking and tea raw materials: it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the leader of frozen baking Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973, not rated). The company issued the performance forecast for 2021. The rapid growth of revenue benefited from the large volume of single products. At present, the company has raised the price of products to alleviate the cost impact; It is recommended to pay attention to the supplier of vegetable fat powder raw materials Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) (605300, not rated).
Risk tips
Rising raw material costs, intensifying industry competition, sudden food safety incidents, etc
