\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132)
The company announced the performance express of 2021: it is expected that the company will realize an operating revenue of 13.119 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 19.90% (the caliber of the prepared statement, the same below), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.166 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38.82%, and a net profit of 1.143 billion yuan after deduction, with a year-on-year increase of 76.14%.
The volume and price rose throughout the year and turned losses into profits in the fourth quarter. Thanks to the intensive cultivation and expansion of “Yangfan 22” project, the company’s beer sales increased by about 15% year-on-year, much higher than the overall growth rate of 5.6% in the industry. At the same time, under the guidance of “Wusu” brand, the company’s product structure continued to improve, the overall price per ton of wine increased by about 4%, and the operating profit margin increased by 2.94pct to 22.42%, which is at the leading level in the industry. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 120 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year (a loss of 7.086 million yuan in the same period of 20 years).
The nationalization of “Wusu” has been steadily promoted, and the production capacity has been followed up and distributed in South China. The company promotes the high-end product structure with the “6 + 6” brand matrix, and “Wusu” leads the company’s high-end product volume with its unique flavor and Xinjiang regional characteristics. We expect the annual sales volume of Wusu to exceed 800000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. 1664, Fenghuaxueyue and other high-end products will also take advantage of the situation. The company continues to explore the national blank market with the “big city” strategy. It plans to invest about 1.03 billion yuan in Foshan to build a production base with an annual output of 500000 kiloliters of beer. It is expected to officially start construction in July 2022 and put into operation in 2024. The capacity will follow up and accelerate the national layout.
Carlsberg’s “sail 27” starts a new round of growth. In 2020, the company completed the asset restructuring with Carlsberg China, and continued to promote the optimization of organizational structure and marketing integration in 2021. On February 3, 2022, Carlsberg group released the new strategy of “sailing 27”. China is Carlsberg group’s largest market in the world, and “continuing to succeed in China” is one of the strategic priorities. The company will continue to strengthen high-end products, consolidate mainstream core beer, actively expand new categories including alcohol free beer, and enter a new round of growth period.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 13.119 billion, RMB 15.326 billion and RMB 17.144 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.166 billion, RMB 1.430 billion and RMB 1.654 billion respectively, the EPS will be RMB 241 million, RMB 2.95 million and RMB 3.42 respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 55, 45 and 39 times respectively. The company’s high-end strategy is clear, “Wusu” will become the first high-end million single product, Loulan secret wine The cultivation of new products such as black beer and white beer can be expected to maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects consumption; Intensified market competition; Food safety accidents.
