\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (000524)
The company expects to achieve revenue of RMB 1.368-1.752 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.69% - 27.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to lose 109-141 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.36% - 54.67%; After deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company, the expected loss is RMB 164-196 million, with a year-on-year increase of 24.45% - 36.79%. Key points supporting rating
The business of guangzhilv China, a holding subsidiary, has resumed, and the entry-exit business is still blocked. Affected by the epidemic and the requirements of regional prevention and control, Guangzhi travel, the holding subsidiary of the company, has suspended the operation of team tourism and "air ticket + Hotel" tourism products since January 2020. At present, relevant businesses in China have been fully restored, and the inbound and outbound tourism group business has not been restarted.
The company focuses on the new demand of post epidemic tourism and promotes the upgrading of service quality. In terms of business travel business, the company launched new IPS such as high-standard group tour "Huayu Zhenpin", in-depth Tour Series "player camp", young customer series "suburban friends", and promoted the supply of fragmented products. In terms of accommodation business, the company has created a new lifestyle of "hotel is destination", and the revenue of destination resort hotels managed by the company has exceeded the level of the same period in 2019 in the 21 years of Qingming, may day and National Day holidays. The hotel management business accelerated brand expansion, expanded 28 management projects and added 11000 rooms.
The controlling shareholders implemented joint restructuring to jointly build a new business travel leader. The company announced that Guangzhou SASAC plans to jointly restructure Guangzhou business investment holding group and Guangzhou Lingnan international enterprise group, the controlling shareholder of the company, and plans to restructure and establish Guangzhou Lingnan business travel investment group. After the reorganization of Guangzhou's medium and long-term tourism industry, the specific plan is expected to promote the comprehensive development of Guangzhou's joint tourism industry, and the specific plan is expected to be determined.
Valuation
According to the performance forecast of the company in the 21st year, the EPS of the company in the 21st-23rd year is adjusted to -0.19/0.43/0.68 yuan, and the corresponding P / E ratio is -42.3/18.4/11.6 times. The spread of the epidemic in China affects the recovery of the company's performance, but the company continues to focus on the new demand for post epidemic tourism and promote the upgrading of the quality of its main business. The reorganization of the parent company is expected to help the company's medium and long-term comprehensive development. The epidemic is gradually alleviated and is optimistic about the recovery in the next year. Therefore, the company maintains the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The development of outbound tourism is less than expected, the competition in China's tourism market is intensified, and the covid-19 epidemic risk is repeated.
