\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Core view
Guangben’s sales volume remained stable on a month on month basis. Guangben sold 78500 vehicles in January, with a slight increase of 1.1% year-on-year, which was basically the same month on month. According to the passenger Federation, in the first three weeks of January, the wholesale sales of narrow passenger vehicles increased by 6% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of guangben’s wholesale sales was lower than the industry average. In January, accord sold 17600 vehicles, Binzhi sold 18400 vehicles and haoying sold 11600 vehicles. In terms of new cars, new Odyssey, Xingge and other new models will be launched in December 2021, and haoying modified models will be launched in 2022. In the field of new energy vehicles, the first model e: NP1 of intelligent pure electric architecture e: n architecture is expected to be officially launched in the first half of 2022. Five pure electric models will be launched in the next five years, and the process of electrification transformation will continue to advance. It is expected that the chip supply will gradually recover in 2022, and the year-on-year growth rate of guangben’s sales is expected to gradually pick up.
The year-on-year growth rate of Guangfeng’s sales is good, and the layout of SUV products is becoming more and more perfect. Guangfeng sold 99900 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% and a slight increase of 1.4% month on month. The sales growth in January outperformed the industry average. In January, Camry sold 28000 vehicles, leiling sold 19600 vehicles, willanda sold 17500 vehicles and hanlanda sold 13200 vehicles. The sales volume of the new MPV model race in January reached 5399, of which the sales volume of the top equipped 405800 platinum version accounted for 40%. The sales volume climbed rapidly, which is expected to become a new profit growth point of Guangfeng in 2022. In January, two new SUV models of fenglanda and Weisa were officially launched, and Guangfeng tnga SUV product family was able to achieve full coverage of 100000-350000 levels, which can effectively meet the car purchase needs of consumers at different levels. In terms of pure electric vehicles, the first model bz4x of Toyota BZ pure electric series is expected to be listed in 2022, which is expected to improve the market competitiveness of Guangfeng pure electric.
The independent sales volume of GAC increased steadily month on month, and the sales volume of ai’an reached a new high in a single month. GAC sold 36600 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month on month increase of 13.7%. The growth rate of GAC’s independent sales was basically the same as the industry average. In terms of new energy vehicles, GAC ea’an sold 16000 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 117.9% and a month on month increase of 10.6%. The sales reached a new high in a single month. In January, aion s plus, aion LX plus and other modified models were officially launched. Among them, aion LX plus Qianli version has become the world’s first pure electric vehicle with a endurance of more than 1000 kilometers, and has been comprehensively upgraded in terms of appearance, interior and cabin. The launch of new models of ai’an is expected to promote the sustained and rapid growth of sales.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Due to the change of share capital, the EPS is expected to be 0.67, 1.00 and 1.14 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023 (the original 0.67, 1.00 and 1.15 yuan). The chip affects the profit. According to the 22-year PE valuation and referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the company is given 19 times PE in 2022 and the target price is 19 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The sales volume of GAC passenger cars, Guangfeng, guangben and guangfeike is lower than the expected risk, and the demand of the passenger car industry is lower than the expected risk.
