\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) (002436)
Large scale investment in the most high-end FCBGA production line in the field of packaging substrate
According to the announcement of the company on February 8, 2022, the company plans to build FCBGA (ABF carrier sector) production and R & D base with a total capacity of 20 million pieces / month in two phases. The total investment of the project is expected to be 6 billion yuan, of which the investment in fixed assets is not less than 5 billion yuan. Phase I of the project is expected to start within 3 months after obtaining the land, and be completed within 18 months after commencement. It is planned to reach the production capacity in 2025, and the production capacity after reaching the production capacity is expected to be 10 million pieces / month; Phase II is expected to be completed in June 2025. It is planned to reach the production capacity in December 2027. The production capacity after reaching the production capacity is expected to be 10 million pieces / month.
The global capacity of FCBGA carrier is in short supply, and the demand for "domestic substitution" is urgent
1) according to prismark data, in 2025, the output value of fc-bga / PGA / LGA packaging substrate in global IC carrier board will reach US $7.72 billion, and the CAGR will be 10.8%. FCBGA carrier board is mainly used in CPU, GPU, high-end server, ASIC, FPGA and ADAS. With the surge in demand in intelligent driving, 5g, big data, AI and other fields, FCBGA packaging substrate has been in a state of capacity shortage for a long time.
2) at present, FCBGA packaging substrate is basically monopolized by overseas manufacturers. In 2020, the main suppliers of FCBGA in the world were Yifei electric, Xinxing electronics, Kobelco electric, South Asia, Samsung motor and so on. They were all enterprises in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, China, and overseas manufacturers almost supplied the total output value of FCBGA. The FCBGA packaging substrate in Chinese mainland is still in the initial stage of planning and investment. Except for Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , only Shennan Circuits Co.Ltd(002916) in Chinese mainland enterprises has FCBGA production capacity. The rapid development of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car, 5g, server and other fields has driven the demand for FCBGA packaging substrate. At present, Chinese customers cannot obtain sufficient support from overseas FCBGA packaging substrate suppliers, the company's new production line will help to open the situation of overseas monopoly of FCBGA and effectively alleviate the problem of "neck sticking".
It is estimated that after the two phases are completed, the income will increase by 5.6 billion yuan and the net profit will increase by 1.3 billion yuan
The FCBGA production line of each phase is expected to generate an income of 2.8 billion yuan after it is completed. The gross profit margin of FCBGA production line is expected to reach more than 40% and the net profit margin will reach more than 20%. It is expected that the phase I project will start within 3 months after obtaining the land and reach the production capacity in 2025; The second phase is expected to reach production in December 2027. After the completion of the two phases of projects, it will contribute revenue of 5.6 billion yuan to the company, further opening the growth space and scale ceiling of the company.
The large fund project will be put into operation soon, and the IC carrier business is expected to break out in an all-round way
At present, the company's BT carrier capacity is 20000 square meters / month. The large fund project plans to increase the carrier capacity of 30000 square meters / month and 15000 square meters / month. The first BT carrier production line of 15000 square meters / month is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2022.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years is RMB 602 / 753 / 954 million. According to the closing price of 2022 / 2 / 8, PE is 31 / 25 / 20 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risks of new capacity falling short of expectations, demand falling short of expectations, approval falling short of expectations, and failure to raise sufficient project construction funds in time
