\u3000\u3000 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636)
Q4 is a profit pressure period, and the annual net profit still has a high growth rate
On January 27, the company released the performance forecast for 21 years. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 13.85-15.3 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of + 43.6% - 58.7%, with a median value of 14.57 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 4.04-4.47 billion yuan, yoy + 121.4% - 144.7%, with a median value of 4.25 billion yuan; It is expected to realize a net profit of 3.96-4.38 billion yuan, yoy + 129.7% - 153.9%, with a median value of 4.17 billion yuan. It is estimated that the median value of Q4 single quarter revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company is 38.1 / 6.0 / 590 million yuan, yoy + 23.3% / - 2.3% / - 0.8%.
Float glass contributed the main profits, and the profits of industrial units recovered
According to our calculation, the annual revenue of float glass exceeds 12.6 billion yuan, of which Q4 is about 3.3 billion yuan. We believe that at present, the contribution of other business performance of the company is limited (pharmaceutical and electronic glass are still in the early stage of development, photovoltaic glass production capacity is limited and the price is low). If we calculate the net profit of 600 million yuan, we expect the net profit of Q4 unit to be about 16.6 yuan / heavy container. At the industry level, the unit profit has gradually recovered. The overall average net profit of the industry has rebounded from 64.6 yuan / ton on November 25, 2021 to 360 yuan / ton at the end of 21. As of January 27, 22, the net profit of the industry has reached 263.3 yuan / ton. We believe that with the recovery of the completion demand at the beginning of this year, the net profit of a single box still has room to rise.
Further processing of glass to increase added value is expected to weaken the company's cycle attribute
1) building energy-saving glass: with the proposal of "carbon neutralization and carbon peak", China's Low-E glass is expected to develop rapidly. We estimate that in 2020, the company will have a nominal production capacity of energy-saving glass of 22 million square meters / year. In addition, the construction of energy-saving glass production capacity in Changxing, Zhejiang, Tianjin, Hunan and other places is being promoted, and we expect that the production capacity of energy-saving glass is expected to double. 2) Photovoltaic glass: according to Zhuo Chuang, the company currently has a photovoltaic glass production capacity of 2000t / D and is expected to be put into operation in 22 years. With the release of the company's production capacity and the high scenery of the photovoltaic industry, it is expected that photovoltaic glass will take the lead in bringing new performance growth points to the company. 3) Electronic and medicinal glass is in the transformation period from R & D to production. The current capacity of electronic glass is 65t / D (65t / D capacity is still under planning), and 25t / D medium boron medicinal glass has been ignited (the future capacity is planned to exceed 100t / D). Focusing on the main industry of glass, the company further enriches its categories, especially high value-added products, and can grow in the future.
Diversified layout further improves the future profit growth and maintains the "buy" rating
The company is a leader in float glass, deeply cultivating its main business, promoting the production capacity layout of electronic glass and photovoltaic glass, and accelerating the construction projects of energy-saving building glass. We believe that the company is expected to become a large building materials group integrating float glass, photovoltaic, energy-saving, electronic and medicinal glass in the future. In addition, the company has set up a follow-up investment platform (electronic and pharmaceutical glass projects have been invested) to realize the deep binding of executives and technicians. Electronic and pharmaceutical glass is expected to make new contributions to the company with domestic substitution. According to the performance forecast and the industry profitability at the current time point, we lowered the profit forecast and expected EPS 1.5 in 21-23 years 59 / 1.56/1.91 yuan / share (the previous value was 1.8 / 2.0 / 2.4 yuan / share), corresponding to PE11 / 11 / 9 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the completion of real estate is less than expected, the installation of photovoltaic is less than expected, and the launch of new production capacity is less than expected. The performance forecast is only the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the annual report
