\u3000\u3000 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual performance is expected to increase by 151% – 196%, exceeding the expectation. The company’s profitability is stable, the leading position of battery is stable, and the capacity expansion is advancing steadily; Maintain buy rating.
Key points supporting rating
It is predicted that the profit in 2021 will increase by 161% – 196% year-on-year, exceeding the expectation: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 14-16.5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 150.75% – 195.52%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 12-14 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 181.38% – 228.28%. According to the performance forecast, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.25-8.75 billion yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 180.8% – 293.1% and a month on month increase of 91.3% – 167.8%; Deduct 5.4-7.4 billion yuan of non-profit, with a year-on-year increase of 218.0% – 335.9% and a month on month increase of 101.0% – 175.5%. The company’s forecast performance exceeded market expectations.
The company’s power battery business and energy storage system business showed significant growth: according to the data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, the company’s installed capacity in China in 2021 was 80.51gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 153% and an installed share of 52.1%, continuing to rank first in China. We expect the company’s global power battery sales in 2021 to exceed 130gwh. At the same time, the company’s energy storage battery business increased significantly. In the first half of 2021, the revenue of energy storage business increased by 727.36% year-on-year, and it is expected to maintain a high growth rate throughout the year.
Outstanding effect of supply chain management: according to the company’s cash flow statement, the company spent about 29.8 billion yuan on purchasing goods in 2021q3, which is expected to mainly purchase upstream materials, which will play a certain role in stabilizing the price fluctuation of raw materials in 2021q4. In addition, the company has recently signed purchase agreements with Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) and other supply chain enterprises; Establish a joint venture with Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and plan to build an annual capacity of 50000 tons of lithium carbonate. The agreement stipulates that 100% of the lithium carbonate products of the joint venture will be preferentially supplied to the company or the designated party of the company, which is expected to further ensure the supply of lithium resources.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s performance forecast and considering the sales expectation of new energy vehicles, the progress of the company’s capacity expansion and customer expansion, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to 6.50/12.02/18.02 yuan (the original predicted earnings per share was 4.57/8.52/11.10 yuan), corresponding to 88.5/48.8/31.9 times of P / E ratio; Maintain buy rating.
Main risks of rating
Supply chain tension exceeds expectations; Demand does not meet expectations; The product strength of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The new energy vehicle industry policy did not meet expectations; The price competition in the industrial chain exceeded expectations; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
