\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) (300316)
Key investment points
Silicon carbide: 230000 substrate intention contract with an estimated amount of 1.5 billion yuan; The global 10 billion market and the second pole of growth opened the reply report to the examination and inquiry letter of the company's application for issuing shares to specific objects.
1) intentional contract: the company has formed a purchase intention with customer a, and will give priority to providing it with no less than 230000 silicon carbide substrates from 2022 to 2025. Customer a will give priority to purchasing the company's silicon carbide substrate products on the premise of meeting the same technology and price.
2) estimated contract amount: according to the quotation of wolfspeed silicon carbide substrate in China's open market, the current price of 6-inch conductive silicon carbide substrate is 6600 yuan / piece. According to the current price: the purchase amount of 230000 pieces is expected to reach 1.52 billion yuan (including tax).
3) production capacity: the company plans to build an annual production capacity of 400000 pieces of conductive + insulating silicon carbide substrates with an annual output of more than 6 inches in Yinchuan, Ningxia (including 1000 long crystal furnaces and corresponding auxiliary equipment and processing equipment), which is planned to be put into trial production in 2022. At present, the global SiC substrate production capacity is tight. A single Tesla demand can eat up most of the global SiC substrate production capacity, and the supply side needs a breakthrough.
4) technical strength: the company has established a pilot production line of raw material synthesis + long crystal + cutting, grinding and polishing, and completed the development of 6-8 inch long crystal thermal field and equipment. The total thickness change rate (TTV) of 6-inch substrate can reach < 3 μ m. Microtubule density (MPD) can stably reach < 0.2/cm2, reaching or better than the technical level in the industry.
5) market space: new energy vehicles are the main growth driver of silicon carbide market. We estimate that the penetration rate of SiC in new energy vehicles will reach 30% in 2025, and the demand for 6-inch SiC substrate is expected to reach 2.25 million pieces / year, with a market space of 11.3 billion yuan. For example, SiC will be more used in photovoltaic inverter, charging pile, 5g communication, rail transit and other fields in the future, and the market space is expected to be further expanded.
Semiconductor polishing and thinning equipment: approved by 220 million orders from customers; Solve the technical problem of "neck sticking" in the industry
1) orders in hand: the company's polishing machine, thinning machine and other equipment have been well verified by customers, and a total purchase contract of 221 million yuan has been formed, including 141 million yuan for customer B (8-12 inch thinning and polishing equipment) and 80 million yuan for Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) (8-inch polishing line).
2) capacity: it is planned to build an annual capacity of 35 sets of semiconductor material thinning equipment (for silicon wafer manufacturing end and packaging end) and 45 sets of semiconductor material polishing equipment (for 8-12 inch monocrystalline silicon wafer, silicon carbide and sapphire wafer manufacturing) in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province.
Performance forecast for 2021: the performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 84% - 114%; Orders on hand reached 20.8 billion
1) net profit attributable to parent company: it is expected to be RMB 1.58-1.84 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 84% - 114%. 2) Orders in hand: by 2021, Q3 has reached 17.76 billion yuan. Superimposed on the new orders of Gaojing and Shuangliang from October to November, the orders on hand reached 20.859 billion.
Investment suggestion: optimistic about the company's performance in the fields of photovoltaic, semiconductor, sapphire and silicon carbide in the next five years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.71/24.7/34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 100% / 44% / 38%, corresponding to 42 / 31 / 23 times of PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the R & D Progress of semiconductor equipment is lower than expected; The downstream expansion of photovoltaic production was less than expected.
