\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: Recently, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) released the production and sales express for January 2022: the company’s automobile production and sales were 218613 and 237232 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13.96% and 9.16%. The comments are as follows: the production and sales in January increased year-on-year, making a good start: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the production and sales in January 2022 increased year-on-year, especially under the continuous influence of chip shortage, The output side achieved double-digit growth. Among them, two fields showed high-quality growth, and the recovery trend of independent sector is obvious.
High quality growth of Liangtian: GAC Toyota achieved production and sales of 90938 and 99900 vehicles respectively in January, with a year-on-year increase of 13.99% and 11.25%. According to GAC Toyota’s official website, 26449 hybrid models were sold in January, accounting for 26.5%, higher than that of GAC Toyota in 2021 (21.7%). Tnga’s three flagship models (Camry, Highlander and Saina) sold 46611 vehicles in total, accounting for 46.7% of the sales in January, while only tnga Camry was on sale in January last year, accounting for 22%. The increase in the proportion of hybrid and tnga flagship models is the guarantee for the high-quality development of GAC Toyota. The sales volume of GAC Toyota’s main models in January remained high, Camry achieved sales of 28023 vehicles, and the 2.5L + HEV version accounted for 54.2%; Hanlanda sold 13189 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; Velanda sold 17483 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%; GAC Honda produced and sold 75332 and 78489 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 18.95% and 1.11%. The main models accord, haoying and Binzhi sell 17601, 11579 and 18395 respectively.
The total sales volume of GAC motor + ea’an in January exceeded 50000, which is the highest monthly sales volume since 2019. In terms of GAC motor, the production and sales in January were 32212 and 36564 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.79% and 6.29%. The sales volume of GS4 family exceeded 10000 in January, and the new second-generation gs8 was officially launched in December 2021, with orders of more than 20000 in 18 days. With the continuous climbing of production capacity, gs8 will contribute to the increment. In terms of Ethiopia and Angola, the production and sales in January were 14601 and 16031 respectively. In 2022, gac-e’an will add 100000 capacity, which is expected to alleviate the current high capacity utilization.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: from 2021 to 2022, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) independent and joint venture vehicle enterprises will launch a number of competitive new models to consolidate the growth certainty in 2022 and beyond. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) continue to deepen the reform of organizational structure. In the first year of the implementation of the new term of office of professional managers in 2022 and the implementation of tenure system and contractual management in all its enterprises, the new mechanism will stimulate new vitality and escort the comprehensive recovery of independent sectors. We believe that the joint venture sector of the company will enter the stage of growth acceleration, and the independent sector will also enter the stage of substantial and comprehensive recovery. We continue to be optimistic about the medium and long-term development prospects of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 7.27 billion yuan, 12.89 billion yuan and 15.75 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.70, 1.25 and 1.52 yuan. According to the closing prices of a and h on February 8, 2022, the PE of GAC A shares are 19, 11 and 9 times respectively, and the PE of GAC H shares are 9, 5 and 4 times respectively, maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating of GAC A and GAC H shares.
Risk tip: the industry demand is sluggish, the company’s new models are less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicles is less than expected
