\u3000\u3000 Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) (000157)
Event: on February 7, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) issued an announcement on the acquisition of Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) controlling shares. It plans to transfer about 780 million yuan through agreement, acquire 29.99% of the shares of the original controlling shareholder, set a price of 21.67 yuan / share, and obtain the controlling right of the company. In the future, Zoomlion will continue to choose the opportunity to acquire shares of no less than 18.83% of the total share capital to ensure that the final shareholding ratio exceeds 48.82%.
Core view: the transaction price is reasonable and is expected to achieve a win-win situation. Judging from the stock price performance of Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) in recent 12 months, this transaction has not generated a premium and the pricing is more reasonable. Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) dual main businesses: ① automotive electronic business focusing on vehicle navigation and intelligent cockpit; ② Environmental protection new material business based on slag powder. The acquisition is not to form an emerging business segment to achieve revenue growth, but to hold a new listing platform and achieve business collaboration as the main purpose, so as to better comply with the intelligent and digital development trend of the construction machinery industry. The company's business layout and industrial supporting facilities are increasingly improved, and its market competitiveness is expected to continue to increase.
Zoomlion and Luchang are expected to exert business synergy in the automotive electronics and new materials sectors and enhance the competitive strength of both sides: from the perspective of business layout, Zoomlion has formed the business layout of construction machinery, agricultural machinery and Zoomlion new materials; Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) started with vehicle navigation products, which can provide products related to intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving and vehicle networking. In 2018, the slag micro powder business was carried out with the metallurgical waste residue treatment technology of the original controlling shareholder, forming the current double main business pattern. According to Luchang's 2020 annual report, the revenue of its automotive electronics and new materials accounted for 61% and 37% respectively. In terms of new materials, slag powder, as a new green building material, is a high-quality admixture of cement and concrete, which can be used to improve the performance of Zoomlion new material dry mixed mortar. In terms of automotive electronics, from the perspective of both parties:
① help Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) open the development space of front loading market. Since Luchang's listing, the automotive electronics business has focused on the aftermarket. With the development of new energy and intelligence of the automotive industry, the intelligence of the front market is getting higher and higher, and the development of the aftermarket has encountered a bottleneck. The combination with Zoomlion is conducive to its development of the blank Market in the subdivided field of construction machinery and agricultural machinery;
② the Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) intelligent supporting sector has obtained market-oriented development opportunities. Previously, Zoomlion has independently supported industrial interconnection and intelligent components. This acquisition has a smooth road. On the one hand, its channel, brand and technical practice can bring market-oriented opportunities to relevant sectors of the company. On the other hand, its technology accumulation, system integration scheme and driverless project experience can be applied to all kinds of construction machinery and agricultural machinery products of Zoomlion, Enhance the intelligent attribute of the company's products and comply with the intelligent development trend of the industry.
The new capital channel and listing platform are expected to help the development of Zoomlion intelligent industry: according to the performance forecast of Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) 2021, the annual revenue is expected to be 400 ~ 420 million yuan and the net profit is expected to be 5 ~ 7.5 million yuan; According to the performance commitment announced in the acquisition announcement of Zoomlion, from 2022 to 2024, the revenue of Luchang automotive electronics business will not be less than 150 million yuan per year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of Nanyang Changfeng, a wholly-owned subsidiary (the main body of slag powder business), will not be less than 25 million yuan per year. We believe that Zoomlion's acquisition is not to regard the automotive electronics industry as a new business segment to achieve rapid revenue growth. Therefore, based on the comprehensive consideration of Luchang's business operation and shareholders' interests, we have determined a more reasonable performance commitment. Zoomlion pays more attention to the platform of listed companies with the attribute of Internet of vehicles. In the future, it will mainly focus on the supporting development of Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) such as intelligence and digitization. Zoomlion itself is accelerating the transformation and upgrading of digitization, intelligence and greening. In terms of sectors: ① construction machinery sector: nearly 30 new energy products were developed in the first half of 2021, covering 8 types of hosts such as high-speed machines and excavators; ② Agricultural machinery sector: focus on intelligent equipment, layout Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) . Zoomlion is committed to leading the market by integrating technological innovation and continuously enhancing the competitiveness of products.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 66.42 billion yuan, 71.66 billion yuan and 78.97 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 7.9% and 10.2% respectively, and the net profit will be 6.31 billion yuan, 7.33 billion yuan and 8.22 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of - 14.5%, 17.0% and 12.5% respectively; Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 7.65 yuan, which is equivalent to 8 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk warning: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Market competition intensifies and the gross profit margin of products declines; The capacity launch of new products was less than expected.
