\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event: on February 8, the company released the sales volume in January. This month, the company sold 237200 vehicles, with a month on month increase of 1.52% and a year-on-year increase of 9.16%.
In January, the sales volume of ai’an reached a record high. In January, the wholesale sales volume of ea’an was 16031, with a month on month and year-on-year increase of 10.56% and 117.43% respectively, and the sales volume reached a new record. From the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, a number of new cars of ea’an were listed. 1) on November 1, 2022 aiony was listed in advance. According to the company’s official wechat, the orders of new cars easily broke thousands on the first day and 10000 for two consecutive months; 2) On January 1, 2002, 2022 aion s plus was officially launched, and the older models were upgraded in appearance and configuration; 3) On January 5, 2022, aion LX plus was officially launched. The new car is equipped with three lidar and sponge silicon negative electrode batteries. The mileage will reach 1008km, and the product power of the new car will be greatly improved. We expect that with the expansion and landing of production in Ethiopia and Angola, the sales volume of Ethiopia and Angola may continue to grow high in 2022.
The off-season is not light, and GAC motor performed well in January. In January, GAC motor achieved a wholesale sales volume of 36564 vehicles, an increase of 13.73% month on month and 6.29% year on year respectively, a record high since 2020. The main reasons for the increase in sales volume are as follows: 1) there is strong demand for shadow leopard. According to the company’s official wechat, as of January 27, 2022, the cumulative orders of shadow leopard exceeded 70000; 2) MPV models performed well. According to the company’s official wechat, trumpchi M8 led the sales of its own brand for 28 consecutive months, and the sales of trumpchi M6 exceeded 6000, with a year-on-year increase of 63.3%; 3) The sales volume of the main model GAC motor GS4 this month was 13523, an increase of 53.64% month on month. According to the company’s official wechat, the new second-generation trumpchi gs8, which was launched in December 2021, has been on the market for 18 days, with an order of more than 20000 vehicles. We expect that with the release of orders from Yingbao and the second generation gs8, the superimposed MPV models and GAC motor GS4 will continue to sell well, and GAC motor’s sales volume is expected to continue to reach a new high.
Guangfeng made a good start and brushed the sales record again in January. In January, Guangfeng sold 99900 vehicles in batches, with an increase of 1.40% month on month and 11.25% year on year respectively, breaking the sales record again on the basis of last month. Among them, according to the company’s official wechat, the sales volume of new Saina this month was 5399, with a month-on-month increase of 93.44%, and the top allocation sales accounted for 40%; According to the company’s official wechat, Camry sold 28023 vehicles in batches, with a month on month and year-on-year increase of 3.04% and 39.86% respectively, and the sales of more than 200000 versions accounted for 59.4%; This month, the sales volume of leiling, weilanda and hanlanda were 19581, 17483 and 13189 respectively. In January, guangben sold 78489 vehicles, of which the sales of main models accord, Binzhi and haoying were 17601, 18395 and 11579 respectively. On December 16, 2021, guangben’s new model was listed. According to the company’s official wechat, the order volume reached 15000 within two weeks of listing, which is expected to contribute to the increase of sales volume.
New product cycle + continuous production expansion, and it is expected to make rapid progress in 2022. In the new product cycle, the 2022 aion y, aion s plus, aionvplus, aion LX plus and aion y of ai’an, the second generation of GAC motor gs8 and GS4 brother models, the model and Electric Vehicle E: NP1 of guangben, Saina, fenglanda, Weisa and pure electric vehicle bz4x of Guangfeng, and pure electric SUV atuko of GAC Mitsubishi will be intensively listed, which is expected to contribute to the sales increase; Continue to expand production. 1) according to the company’s announcement, at the beginning of 2022, the 100000 production capacity of Eyan will be put into operation, and Eyan will start the production capacity construction project of the second plant, with a planned production capacity of 200000 units. The new plant is expected to be completed and put into operation in December 2022, when the production capacity of Eyan will reach 400000 units; 2) Guangfeng’s capacity expansion project with an annual output of 200000 new energy vehicles (line 4), Guangqi Toyota engine tnga series engine construction project and key supporting parts construction project were also started on schedule. Guangben’s adjusted capacity expansion project with an annual output of 120000 new energy vehicles was approved. With the superposition of new product cycles and continuous expansion of production, the company is expected to continue to make rapid progress in 2022.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, gac-e’an’s sales volume is expected to continue to grow, gac-motor is expected to continue to reduce losses, and the listing of heavy-duty models of joint venture brands is expected to bring significant performance flexibility to GAC. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 6.84 billion yuan, 9.81 billion yuan and 13.6 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE is 20.5, 14.4 and 10.4 times respectively, maintaining the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price is 27.90 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the shortage of chips in the automotive industry is increasing; The sales volume is lower than the independent risk; The risk of the epidemic getting out of control.
