\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) (002436)
Key investment points
Abstract: on February 8, Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) issued the announcement on the project of investing in the construction of Guangzhou FCBGA packaging substrate production and R & D base. It is planned to invest 6 billion yuan in Guangzhou Development Zone to build FCBGA packaging substrate production and R & D base.
Layout FCBGA packaging substrate and further focus on core semiconductor business: the total investment of the project is expected to be about 6 billion yuan, of which the total investment in fixed assets is no less than 5 billion yuan. The project is constructed in two phases. The first phase is expected to reach production in 2025, with a production capacity of 10 million pieces / month and a full output value of 2.8 billion yuan; Phase II is expected to reach production by the end of 2027, with a production capacity of 10 million pieces / month and a full output value of 2.8 billion yuan; The total output capacity of the two phases of the project is 20 million pieces / month, and the full output value is 5.6 billion yuan. Based on the company's experience in the field of IC carrier, the investment and construction of this project can better match the company's own business expansion and capacity layout, further focus on the core semiconductor business, expand and layout the high-end market, and maintain the leading advantage.
Pay close attention to the demand outlet of the industry and meet the needs of localization: as one of the core materials of chip packaging, packaging substrate will continue to grow with the steady increase of demand in 5g, data center and intelligent driving and the great wave of digital economy industrialization; However, from the supply side, FCBGA packaging substrate is mainly monopolized by manufacturers in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, China. Although the leading enterprises such as Xinxing, Yifei electric and Jing Shuo have expanded their production, the relationship between supply and demand is still tight. In December 2021, the Taiwan Daily Economic Daily reported: Ceng Zizhang, chairman of Xinxing, said that China's BT Board reached the supply balance in 2024, and the high-end ABF board supply was tight until 2026. We believe that the IC carrier capacity will remain tight from 2021 to 2023, and there will still be a gap between the supply and demand of BT and ABF carriers. Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) as China's leading IC carrier, the company's BT carrier has a capacity of 2W m2 / month, which has reached full production. The pace of subsequent capacity expansion is clear, and the ABF carrier is prospectively arranged, Consolidate the advantages of technology and products. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the steady growth of Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) future performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the steady increase in the demand of IC carrier board industry. At the same time, PCB temsector and small batch board as the basic board business have achieved steady growth, and we continue to be optimistic about the steady increase in Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) future performance. Therefore, we maintain the EPS forecast of 2021-2023 to be RMB 0.41/0.52/0.62 respectively, and the PE corresponding to the current market value is 31 / 24 / 20 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the demand for IC carrier is less than expected; Capacity expansion is less than expected; Upstream raw materials are in short supply.
