\u3000\u3000 Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) (300986)
The penetration rate of aluminum formwork continues to increase, and the leasing mode puts forward higher requirements for the fine management ability of enterprises. With the continuous improvement of industry concentration, the company, as a benchmark enterprise in the industry, is expected to take the lead in benefiting.
Key points supporting rating
With obvious environmental protection advantages and outstanding economic benefits, the general trend of “replacing wood with aluminum”: previously China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) formwork was mainly wood formwork, but with the continuous implementation of building industrialization and green building, the penetration rate of aluminum formwork has been increasing. Aluminum formwork can reduce the construction waste on the construction site and speed up the construction progress. Its environmental protection and cost performance are better than wood formwork. In 2020, the scale of aluminum formwork industry will be 36.4 billion yuan. We estimate that the scale of aluminum formwork market is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan in 2025, CAGR + 15.0%.
Under the leasing mode, the enterprise has high fine management barriers and the improvement of industry concentration is good for the leading enterprises: Aluminum formwork belongs to the category of building materials with low value but great impact on the construction period, which is naturally conducive to the improvement of industry concentration. With the leasing model gradually becoming the mainstream business model, the longer service chain puts forward higher requirements for the fine management ability of enterprises. The head enterprise has a wide capacity layout and strong comprehensive service ability. It is expected to continuously improve its market share by virtue of its scale advantages and refined management advantages.
The company is a benchmark enterprise in the aluminum temsector industry, with scale advantages and strong comprehensive service ability: the company’s aluminum temsector production capacity is 2.7 million square meters, the four production bases radiate across the country, obvious scale advantages, fast customer response and strong comprehensive service ability. The company has developed an industry-leading whole process information management system for complex leasing chains to further improve service capacity and management efficiency.
Capacity continues to expand, and the “1 + n” strategy expands growth space: the company’s capacity continues to expand, which is expected to reach 3.7 million square meters, further improving its scale advantage; The company develops climbing frame and fabricated PC component products, forms synergy with aluminum formwork, and enters the field of high value-added public buildings, with broad development space in the future.
Valuation
Considering the continuous expansion of the company’s production capacity and the continuous promotion of collaborative business, it is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.46 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan and 2.68 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 170 million yuan, 260 million yuan and 360 million yuan respectively; EPS is 1.45, 2.23 and 3.03 yuan respectively. For the first time, the company will give an overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The production capacity was put in less than expected, the price of raw materials rose more than expected, and the demand in the downstream market fell
