\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) (603960)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 48-54 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63% – 58%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 42-49 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.5% – 61.4%.
In 2021, the performance is under pressure, and the lack of core + the rise of raw materials affect the profitability. The main factors affecting the company’s performance in 2021 include: 1) fuel dispenser: in 2021, Volkswagen’s lack of core led to a sharp decline in sales. The company’s shipment of fuel dispenser was about 2 million units, a year-on-year decline of nearly 30%; 2) Automation business: the rising price of raw materials affects the profitability of orders; 3) The testing cost and R & D investment of carbon dioxide products have increased significantly; 4) Vi. the amortization capacity of China is still relatively low, but the utilization rate of fuel is still low. Overall, the impact of core shortage, rising raw materials and some expenses on the company’s short-term profitability is obvious, but the impact on the company’s medium and long-term is relatively limited.
Core shortage mitigation + heat management volume, and the inflection point of performance in 2022 is clear. According to the company’s announcement, the newly signed orders of H1’s automation business in 2021 are expected to exceed 250 million yuan. The core growth point of the company’s automation business is the automation production line of flat wire motor. The main customers include United Automotive Electronics. There are sufficient orders on hand and strong growth certainty. Fuel distributor: with the mitigation of the impact of Volkswagen’s lack of core and the addition of new Audi products and models, it is expected that the company’s traditional steam parts will gradually recover in 2022.
CO2 products are gradually in large quantities, and new customers are expected to be appointed one after another. The driving factors for the growth of the company’s CO2 heat pump air conditioning revenue mainly include: 1) the volume of original customers, the volume of China + overseas Volkswagen ID series models can be expected, the option rate of superimposed CO2 heat pump is expected to gradually increase, and the volume of CO2 pipeline shipments can be expected in 2022; 2) According to the company’s announcement, the company’s valve products are being actively developed and tested; 3) New customer expansion, the company’s CO2 pipeline and valve products, and actively expand China’s major new forces, independent brands and joint venture car enterprises and other customers, which are expected to be designated by new car enterprises one after another. We believe that the product line of the company’s thermal management products and the expansion of new customers will become the core growth point of the company in the next 3-5 years. At present, it is still in the initial stage of the industry, and the subsequent penetration rate can be improved greatly.
CO2 heat pump air conditioning is expected to become the mainstream technology. The advantages of CO2 heat pump air conditioning mainly include: 1) environmental protection, which is different from the traditional fluorohydrogen refrigerant. CO2 as refrigerant has little impact on environmental pollution; 2) Energy saving: compared with the traditional fluorine hydrogen refrigerant heat pump air conditioning + low-power PTC scheme, CO2 heat pump air conditioning has obvious energy-saving effect at low temperature, and the improvement range is more than 20% at low temperature; 3) Good heating performance, cop of CO2 is greater than r1234yf, high heating efficiency and better user experience. It is expected that with the domestic substitution of core components such as compressors and electronic expansion valves and the gradual embodiment of scale effect, the cost of CO2 heat pump air conditioning is expected to be further reduced, gradually close to the scheme of traditional fluorine hydrogen refrigerant heat pump air conditioning, and the option rate is expected to continue to increase.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize an operating revenue of 498 / 1046 / 1673 million yuan and a net profit of 56 / 189 / 334 million yuan. The current share price corresponds to 130 / 38 / 22 times of PE. Due to the impact of the rise in raw materials and the lack of core in the automotive industry, we have lowered the company’s profit forecast. Combined with the average valuation of each segment industry, considering the high technical barriers of CO2 products and the expansion of new customers and new products in the future, we give the company a certain valuation premium for the new energy vehicle business. After segment valuation, the target market value is about 11.3 billion yuan, Continue to be optimistic, maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price is 43.47 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the automotive industry is less than expected, the volume of new products is less than expected, the production and sales of important customers are less than expected, and the penetration rate of CO2 heat pump air conditioning system is less than expected.
