\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the output of passenger cars in January was 218613, with a month on month ratio of + 13.96% / – 18.42% respectively; The sales volume was 237232 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 9.16% / + 1.52% respectively. Among them, 1) GAC Honda produced 75332 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 18.95% / – 20.17% respectively; The sales volume was 78489, with a month on month ratio of + 1.11% / + 0.11% respectively. 2) GAC Toyota produced 90938 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 13.99% / – 11.88% respectively; The sales volume was 99900, with a month on month ratio of + 11.25% / + 1.40% respectively. 3) GAC motor produced 32212 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 2.79% / – 26.73% respectively; The sales volume was 36564, with a month on month ratio of + 6.29% / + 13.73% respectively. 4) GAC ea’an produced 14601 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 98.73% / – 11.23% respectively; The sales volume was 16031, with a month on month ratio of + 117.93% / + 10.56% respectively.
GAC’s overall wholesale rose month on month, and its own brands performed better: 1) from the perspective of sub brands, the sales volume of GAC motor + ea’an performed better month on month. On a month on month basis, under the influence of the Spring Festival holiday, the wholesale of guangben / Guangfeng / GAC motor / ai’an still bucked the trend and achieved positive growth on a month on month basis. The terminal replenishment and real demand showed strong performance. The month on month growth rate of GAC motor + ai’an wholesale was ahead of that of Japanese joint venture brands, at + 13.73% / + 10.56% respectively; The overall output of the group and all brands decreased month on month, mainly due to the higher base of GAC’s output of + 14.65% month on month in December. Compared with the same period last year, the shortage of chips in January 2022 was partially improved, so the production batch achieved positive growth year-on-year. 2) In terms of vehicle types, the growth rate of SUV model production batch fell month on month, and the wholesale of cars / MPV maintained high growth month on month, mainly due to the listing of new cars / MPV products such as shadow leopard and modified M8 / Guangfeng Saina, which boosted the overall sales performance. The production batch of cars in January was 104341 / 111672 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.84% / + 19.70% and a month on month increase of – 13.02% / + 0.36% respectively; The monthly production batch of mpv1 was 17136 / 18214 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.60% / + 20.72% and a month on month increase of – 27.88% / + 25.18%; The monthly production batch of suv1 was 97111 / 107286 respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of – 2.12% / – 1.32% and a month on month ratio of – 21.76% / – 0.45% respectively. 3) In terms of key models, the sales volume of Camry series of Guangfeng brand in January was 28023, with a month on month ratio of + 39.86% / + 3.04% respectively; Leiling sold 19581 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 32.80% / – 10.54% respectively. Guangben brand zhongbinzhi sold 18395 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 12.41% / + 1.79% respectively; Accord sold 17601 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 10.26% / – 13.97% respectively; Among the trumpchi brands, the sales volume of GS4 was 13523, with a month on month ratio of – 5.93% / + 53.64% respectively.
The whole group and all brands went to the warehouse: according to our self built inventory system, the inventory was replenished in January Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , and the inventory of the enterprise in the current month was – 18619 (compared with December). Guangben / Guangfeng / GAC motor / aeanjun went to the warehouse, and the enterprise inventory was – 3157 / – 8962 / – 4352 / – 1430 in the current month (compared with December), mainly because the enterprise inventory increased more in the current month in December and went to the warehouse appropriately in January.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect that with the launch of GAC motor + GAC ea’an new model, a new round of product cycle will continue to be launched, and the cycle of Japanese models will be strong, which is expected to continue to improve. We maintain Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) the expected return to parent net profit from 2021 to 2023, which is 6.5/9/11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.9% / + 38.3% / + 23.0% respectively; The corresponding EPS from 2021 to 2023 is 0.62/0.86/1.06 yuan and PE is 22 / 16 / 13 times. For a long time, we still insist on optimistic about GAC’s independent + Japanese new car cycle, continue to increase the volume, and maintain the “buy” rating of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) .
Risk warning: Overseas epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
