\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238)
Event overview: the company released the sales data of January 2022. The sales volume of cars in January Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) was 237200, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.16% / month on month increase of + 1.52%.
Ai'an increased by + 118% year-on-year, and the sales volume of independent "Gemini" climbed to the peak again. In January, GAC motor sold 36600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.3% / month on month increase of + 13.7%. Among them, GS4 series sold 13500 vehicles, with a month on month increase of + 53.6%, a new high in sales in recent 12 months; Yingbao ordered 70000 vehicles in 2021, and there are enough orders on hand at present; Gs4plus, gs8 and other replacement models are popular. In January, the sales volume of ea'an was 16000, with a year-on-year increase of + 117.9% / month on month increase of + 10.6%. The sales volume exceeded 10000 for seven consecutive months, reaching a new record. Ai'an accounted for 6.8% of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) automobile sales, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.4pct. In January 2022, aionsplus, which supports fast charging, and aionlxplus, which is equipped with three lidars and has a range of 1008km, will be listed. The listing of fast charging + long-range models is expected to drive the sales of ea'an up. With the high-end and intelligent upgrading of "Gemini", GAC is expected to increase both volume and price independently.
Liangtianqiang's product cycle has come, and the production capacity launch boosts the sales upward. In January, guangben sold 78500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.11% / month on month increase of + 0.11%, of which accord / Binzhi / haoying contributed 17600 / 18400 / 11600 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 10.3% / - 12.4% / - 31.5%. In January, Guangfeng sold 99900 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 11.3% / month on month increase of + 1.4%, of which Camry / leiling / willanda / Highlander contributed 2.80/1.96/1.75/13200 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 39.9% / - 32.8% / + 42.5% / + 14.7%. In terms of model launch, the new compact SUV fenglanda and medium-sized SUV Weisa have been listed successively in January, and the compact suvbz4x built by guangben electric vehicle ENP and Guangfeng based on the new e-tnga platform will be listed successively in 2022. In terms of capacity expansion, Guangfeng's capacity expansion project with an annual output of 200000 "new energy vehicles" (line 4) and guangben's capacity expansion project with an annual output of 120000 new energy vehicles were also approved. The production capacity of the two fields made concerted efforts to open the upward cycle of sales.
The independent and controllable supply chain enhances the core competitiveness, and the mixed reform of Egypt and Angola is expected to boost the company's valuation. The company actively laid out its core supply chain. In terms of electronic control, GAC and CRRC times set up a semiconductor company in January to lay out independent IGBT for new energy vehicles. The project will achieve an annual production capacity of 300000 / 600000 by 2023 / 2025; In terms of batteries, the company expects to build its own battery plant this year, with a planned capacity of 10-15gwh; In terms of chips, the company has reached cooperation with key enterprises in the field of intelligent networking such as Yuexin semiconductor, horizon and chenjing technology. Through self research + cooperation, the company gradually realizes the independent control of the supply chain and upstream and downstream coordination. In terms of production capacity, the expansion + new construction of ea'an plant is actively promoted, and the production capacity is expected to reach 200000 / 400000 vehicles in 2022 / 2023. Technology enables to enhance the core competitiveness of products, expand production, ensure the release of orders and support the upward sales. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) in the field of intelligent electrification, we will continue to make efforts to challenge the goal of year-on-year growth of 15% in automobile production and sales in 2022. The strong rise of independent "Gemini" has driven the company's profitability to continue to rise. The mixed reform of Egypt and Angola is expected to reconstruct the company's valuation system.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 70.32/91.51/110.40 yuan respectively, corresponding to 20 / 15 / 13 times of the current share price PE respectively. The company grasps the opportunity of the rise of the new energy market and takes multiple measures in technology and system. The independent rise is expected to become a new growth point of the company and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
