\u3000\u3000 Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) (300285)
Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) engaged in the research and development of functional ceramic materials and acquired the ceramic bearing field of Jiangsu Jinsheng layout
Guoci Jinsheng, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, mainly produces ceramic bearing balls and ceramic balls made of silicon nitride, zirconia, alumina and other materials, which are mainly used in high-end mechanical equipment bearings. According to the 2020 annual report, the company has successively passed the product verification of world-renowned manufacturers NSK and NTN, and has begun to supply; At the same time, the cooperation between the company and other international bearing factories such as Schaeffler has also entered the stage of sample matching. It is expected to achieve mass production and sales by the end of 2021. According to the 2021 semi annual report, the high-end silicon nitride ceramic bearing balls produced by the company have passed the verification of the top three internationally renowned bearing factories, and the orders began to grow steadily. The new product aluminum nitride ceramic substrate has been verified by customers, and the production line has been built. It is expected to realize small batch sales in 2021. At the same time, Dongying headquarters expanded powder production and Jiangsu Jinsheng expanded ceramic ball manufacturing capacity, opening up the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
In new energy vehicles, the application of ceramic bearings has become a trend
New energy vehicles put forward more new requirements for automobile bearings. Firstly, compared with traditional bearings, motor bearings have higher speed and need materials with lower density and relatively more wear-resistant; At the same time, because the alternating current of the motor causes the change of the surrounding electromagnetic field, better insulation is needed to reduce the electrical corrosion caused by the discharge of the bearing; Third, the surface of the bearing ball is required to be smoother and less worn. Ceramic balls have the characteristics of low density, high hardness and friction resistance. They are suitable for high-speed rotation. Ceramic balls are irreplaceable in the fields of high temperature, strong magnetic and high vacuum. From almost no ceramic bearings are used in cars to 2020, 5% of the bearings in new energy vehicles have been replaced by ceramic bearings. In the field of new energy vehicles, it is a trend for ceramic bearings to replace steel ball bearings. The output shaft of Tesla motor adopts ceramic bearing and NSK designed hybrid ceramic bearing. The bearing ball is composed of 50 silicon nitride balls; The 2 rotor bearings of Audi ata250 motor are made of ceramic material. Ceramic bearings are also gradually used in wind turbine bearings. According to our calculation, it is estimated that the global ceramic ball market space in the field of new energy vehicles will be close to 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 20 billion yuan in 2030; It is estimated that the market space of ceramic balls in Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile field will be close to 1.3 billion yuan in 2025 and more than 10 billion yuan in 2030.
The ceramic bearing industry chain is dominated by foreign enterprises, and localization is accelerating
High end ceramic balls generally need to achieve three key technical indicators at the same time, high precision (processing technology, G5 and higher), long fatigue life (ceramic technology) and good surface quality (usually hundreds of times without any micro defects). To solve these three problems, we need high-quality raw materials, stable and advanced ceramic manufacturing technology and ceramic ball processing technology. The current situation of the industry for a long time is that the upstream high-purity powder preparation technology has been controlled by foreign enterprises such as Ube for a long time. The long fatigue life ceramic ball blank is mainly dominated by coolstek and Toshiba, and the ceramic ball processing is mainly dominated by Japanese enterprises such as ask and chunzhongdao. Coolstek, ask and other foreign enterprises can achieve G3 precision (higher than G5 grade) and have very good surface quality, while China's bearing ball processing capacity is poor and there is a lack of effective detection means, so it is difficult to stably achieve the precision above G5, and the gap between ball surface quality is larger; However, Chinese enterprises are developing rapidly. Domestic enterprises represented by Jinsheng are narrowing the gap with foreign enterprises. In particular, Jinsheng has basically solved key problems such as ceramic technology, machining accuracy and ceramic ball surface quality control technology at the same time.
Jinsheng achieved an operating revenue of 41.2944 million yuan and a net profit of 14.7724 million yuan in 2019, which is expected to increase significantly in the future.
China Inorganic new material platform company
Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) is a platform company of new inorganic materials in China. Master the core technology of hydrothermal method, and the endogenous MLCC ceramic powder, zirconia and alumina have reached the world-class level; Prince ceramics (ceramic products) and aerchuang (zirconia downstream products) acquired by extension are the downstream of the company's products, both of which have ushered in rapid growth.
Electronic materials: MLCC continues to innovate and expand, and 5g opens up a new space
MLCC is one of the passive components with the largest consumption. As a world-renowned supplier of powder materials for MLCC, the company continues to promote projects under construction on the basis of existing production capacity, and constantly innovate basic powder and formula powder, with high customer recognition. At the same time, with the penetration of 5g technology, the development of electronic components industry is accelerated, and the company's MLCC business has a large space in the future.
Catalytic materials: new opportunities brought by the implementation of national six standards
Since the implementation of the national six standards, honeycomb ceramic materials are an indispensable carrier in the process of automobile exhaust emission treatment. The implementation of the national six standards has helped the company's performance growth. The company's ultra-thin wall TWC products and GPF products have been supplied in large quantities in the field of gasoline engine micro card, and diesel engine doc, SCR, DPF, ASC and other products have been mass produced and sold, realizing the full coverage and stable supply of national six standard products.
Biomedical materials sector: the investment and investment of Hillhouse capital and Songbai are implemented to enable long-term development
Guoporcelain has opened up the whole industrial chain of dental implants and launched a series of new oral material products. Some products have passed the access licenses of the United States, the European Union and other places. The joining of strategic investors of Hillhouse capital and Songbai investment will accelerate the global layout of biomedical materials and empower the long-term development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 813 / 1104 / 1401 million respectively, and the PE will be 49, 36 and 29 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of product promotion falling short of expectations, the risk of project construction falling short of expectations, the risk of price decline of main products, the risk of price fluctuation of main raw materials, the risk of international trade friction, the risk of environmental protection and safe production, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, the risk of intensified competition in the same industry, the risk of product R & D and application, the risk of uncertainty of ceramic bearing penetration Uncertain risks of technological progress.
