\u3000\u3000 Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) (601816)
Key investment points
High speed rail and civil aviation: competition and complementarity complement each other. As an important means of rapid transportation connecting Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) and Beijing Shanghai routes have both competitive and complementary roles in the carrying and transportation of passenger flow. The competitive game between high-speed rail and civil aviation makes them form different service groups and regions. The Beijing Shanghai route mainly serves passengers in Beijing and Shanghai, and the passengers are mainly business passengers, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) serves cities along the Beijing Shanghai route, and the short-distance routes between cities along the route are gradually replaced by high-speed rail. High-speed rail expands the area and scope of passenger service, Meet the travel needs of various passengers.
Supply and demand structure: the economy is active, the demand is strong, and there is still room for capacity release. 1) Demand level: the economy along the line is active and the demand for passengers is strong. Economic development level, population size, economic structure, residents' consumption level, transportation system development and other factors are the main factors affecting passenger transport demand. In the future, with the gradual elimination of the impact of the epidemic, without the interference of special circumstances, We believe that in the future, the factors affecting travel demand along Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) will still return to the growth rate of resident population and per capita disposable income along the line. 2) Supply level: some sections are always tense, and there is still room to improve the carrying capacity. From the perspective of supply, the transport capacity of high-speed railway is mainly reflected in the carrying capacity of high-speed railway diagram. From the perspective of section, the proportion of running trains in Xuzhou East Bengbu south section accounts for 70.42% of the carrying capacity of the section. Theoretically, Xuzhou East Bengbu south section has not reached the level of complete saturation. In other sections, such as Beijing south Tianjin South and Nanjing south Shanghai Hongqiao, the number of running pairs accounts for less than 60% of the section capacity, and section vehicles can still be added. With the growth of passenger volume and the gradual improvement of the network of passenger dedicated lines, the demand for traffic volume of high-speed railway trunk lines will be greater and greater. The solutions to alleviate the shortage of carrying capacity include increasing the speed of trains or trains running at the same speed, shortening the train tracking interval, reducing the stop loss, and shortening the train tracking interval It is more possible to reduce the loss of stopping and improve the carrying capacity.
The expanded cross line and the just needed main line balance the skills and ways of transportation capacity. As one of the eight horizontal and eight vertical main roads, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) , if it is to continue to play the role of a major artery, it is necessary to continuously increase the number of cross line trains connected to the Beijing Shanghai line. With the continuous increase of passenger dedicated lines along the line and the continuous adjustment of the train diagram between Beijing and Shanghai, the cross line trains gradually occupy the share of trains on this line. However, compared with the actual capacity of this line and cross line, the capacity of this line has not decreased significantly under the condition of continuous decline of running trains. On the one hand, there are still a large number of short marshalling trains in the original EMU trains on this line, Short marshalling trains can be replaced by long marshalling trains. On the other hand, there are still some short-term trains in the trains running on this line. Replacing short-term trains with long-term trains can also improve the transport capacity of this line.
The value of this line: the floating ticket price breaks through the income bottleneck, and the model adjustment brings incremental transport capacity. 1) Floating ticket prices open the ceiling and improve the quality and quantity of income of this line. Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) the floating fare mechanism has been implemented since December 23, 2020, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) since then, the fixed fare mechanism has been broken. After the opening of the new train diagram in 2021, there will be a secondary adjustment of fares, and the level of passenger transport products will be richer, which is conducive to providing differentiated services for passengers. However, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) unit price is at a low level in popular lines, and the overall fare center may be increased in the future. 2) The vehicle structure changes dynamically, and there is still room to improve the transport capacity. In January 2019, the super long version of "Fuxing" was put into operation. For the first time, 17 car marshalling was adopted, and the number of personnel increased by about 7.5% compared with 16 car marshalling. Under the condition of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) tight original operation capacity, the operation capacity can be improved by changing the model of EMU to improve the overall operation efficiency.
Cross line highlights: Beijing Fuzhou Anhui road network coordination, and the flow realization potential can be expected. There are four special railway lines under the jurisdiction of Beijing Fuzhou Anhui. Hefei bengal passenger dedicated line has been opened in 2012, and the Anhui section of Hefei Fuzhou railway has also been opened in 2015. The opening time of Shang Hefei Hangzhou railway and Zheng Fu railway is relatively short, while the operating mileage of Shang Hefei Hangzhou Railway in Anhui section reaches 592 kilometers. In the future, with the growth of the operating lines of Shang Hefei Hangzhou railway and Zheng Fu railway, it will continue to contribute revenue to Beijing Fuzhou Anhui.
Investment suggestion: in the long run, as a mature high-speed railway line, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) has stable passenger resources, perfect operation mechanism and unique location advantages. After the epidemic, the company's long-term performance will remain at a stable level. In addition, the company promises a dividend rate of 50%, with both growth and defense attributes. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 30.42 billion yuan, 37.51 billion yuan and 46.96 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.5%, 23.3% and 25.2% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.98 billion yuan, 9.0 billion yuan and 14.69 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 54.1%, 80.9% and 63.1% respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.10, 0.18 and 0.30 yuan respectively. We are rated as "overweight".
Risk tips: the macro-economy is less than expected, the operation of raised investment projects is less than expected, the impact of epidemic situation is more than expected, the risk of major safety accidents, the risk of delayed information or untimely update.
