Electrical equipment 11181 fell 1.92%, outperforming the market. This week (from January 24 to January 28, the same below), wind power rose 4.72%, power generation equipment rose 0.84%, industrial control automation rose 0%, lithium battery fell 3.18%, nuclear power fell 3.53%, photovoltaic fell 4.51%, new energy vehicles fell 4.52%, and power generation and power grid fell 5.24%. The top five increases were Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) ; The top five declines were Sec Electric Machinery Co.Ltd(603988) , Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) , Qingdao Zhongzi Zhongcheng Group Co.Ltd(300208) , Shijiazhuang Tonhe Electronics Technologies Co.Ltd(300491) , Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co.Ltd(000862) .
The sales volume of GAC + 1.289 million electric vehicles in the same month (the same month sales volume of GAC + 1.809 million vehicles in the same month sales volume of GAC + 1.809 million vehicles in the same month sales volume of Nezha), and the sales volume of electric vehicles in the same month + 1.809 million vehicles in the same month (the same month sales volume of GAC + 1.809 million vehicles in the same month sales volume of Nezha / -%), Xiaopeng sold 13000 vehicles (YoY + 115% / – 19%); European mainstream countries sold 127000 electric vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 33% / – 48%, a penetration rate of 19.5%, and a month on month ratio of + 5 / – 1PCT; The United States sold 62000 electric vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 75% / – 18%, a penetration rate of 6.2%, and a month on month ratio of + 3 / + 0pct; Tesla: there will be no new models in 22 years, and the FSD will be significantly improved in the next few months. The 22q1 large cylindrical 4680 battery will be loaded. The demand for energy storage batteries will increase 2-3 times in 22 years, and all will be switched to lithium iron batteries; Nearly 5 billion yuan, Chang’an new energy officially completed round B financing; Volvo cars and northvolt plan to jointly build 50gwh power, which is planned to be put into operation in 25 years; LG new energy and General Motors will jointly build the fourth battery plant; The market value of LG new energy on the first day of listing exceeded 600 billion; Metal cobalt is quoted at 503000 yuan / ton, this week – 0.7%, nickel at 169600 yuan / ton, this week – 4.7%, manganese at 41500 yuan / ton, this week – 1.4%, metal lithium at 197000 yuan / ton, this week + 10.7%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 380400 yuan / ton, this week + 5.5%, lithium hydroxide at 306900 yuan / ton, this week + 5.0%, and industrial grade DMC dimethyl carbonate at 10700 yuan / ton, which is the same this week, The quotation of Sanyuan 622 cathode is 287000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of Sanyuan 811 cathode is 304500 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 127000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate PVDF is 675000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. The quotation of ternary PVDF is 850000 yuan / ton, which is the same this week. New energy: CLP: wind power and photovoltaic are expected to increase by about 50gw and 90gw in 2022; Double carbon Conference! Xi Jinping raise wind power and photovoltaic; National Energy Administration: distributed photovoltaic design, construction and access, photovoltaic energy consumption, etc. are listed in the key directions of energy industry standard plan; The Biden administration said on February 4 that it would extend the Article 201 tariff on imported Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and battery panels for another four years, and the tariff quota may be increased from 2.5gw to 5GW to continue to exempt double-sided batteries. The green power transaction from January to April this year has reached 141 million kwh; Household photovoltaic data frequency exceeds expectations; This week’s monocrystalline silicon material is 242 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of + 1.26%; The quotation of single crystal silicon wafer 166 / 182 / 210mm is 5.3/6.4/8.35 yuan / piece, with a month on month ratio of + 2.91% / + 4.07% / + 3.09%; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.09 yuan / W, with a month on month ratio of + 0.93%; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.83 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: manufacturing pmi50 in January 1. The month on month ratio was -0.2pct, in which the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 51.6 / 50.5 / 46.0 respectively, and the month on month ratio was + 0.3pct / – 0.8pct / – 0.5pct respectively; In the whole year of 21, the completed investment in power grid was 495.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 5.4%, of which 84.9 billion was invested in December, a year-on-year increase of + 12.2%.
Company level: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 14-16.5 billion yuan in 21 years, an increase of 151% – 196% at the same time. After deducting non-profit, it was RMB 12-14 billion, an increase of 181.38% – 228.28% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 4q21 is expected to be 10.643-13.143 billion yuan, an increase of 90.62% – 135.4% at the same time. RMB 9.433-11.433 billion after deduction of non-profit, with a same increase of 121.18% – 168.08%. Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 3.255-3.675 billion yuan, an increase of 40% – 60.00% at the same time. After deducting non-profit, it is RMB 2.678-3.061 billion, an increase of 55.00% – 75.00% at the same time. Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 2.726-3.056 billion yuan, an increase of 65% – 85.00% at the same time. After deducting non-profit, it is 2.441-2.67 billion yuan, an increase of 60% – 75.00% at the same time. Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 908-962 million yuan, an increase of 116.11% – 128.96% at the same time. After deducting non-profit, it is 748-802 million yuan, with an increase of 115.61% – 131.17. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : it is proposed to grant stock rights and interests to 1012 incentive objects, with a total of no more than 0.3553% of the total share capital. The unlocking performance target is based on the revenue in 2021, and the revenue growth rate in 22 / 23 / 24 years shall not be less than 150% / 180% / 210%. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : it is proposed to acquire 31% equity of Huafei company held by Yongrui holding through Huayou international cobalt industry with us $775000 or equivalent Indonesian rupees 10874.8 million, and pledge 31% equity of Huafei company to Yiwei Asia, so as to provide guarantee for the shareholder loan of Yiwei Asia to Huafei company with a one-time amount of US $214.2 million, a loan term of 7 years and an annual interest rate of 5%. Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 32-38 million yuan, with a decrease of 86.69% – 88.79%. After deducting non-profit, it is -16 ~ -19 million yuan, with a decrease of 106.35% – 107.54%. Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be -0.1-0.7 billion yuan, with a decrease of 101% – 109%. After deducting non, it is – 100 ~ 200 million yuan, with a decrease of 118% – 136%.
Investment strategy: in January, the sales volume of China’s mainstream electric vehicle enterprises greatly exceeded expectations, with only a slight decline month on month. We expect that the overall sales volume in January will exceed 450000 vehicles, with a month on month decline of 15%, greatly exceeding the previous expectation of about 30%; The impulse at the end of the quarter fell in Europe and the United States, of which 127000 vehicles were sold in ten European countries, with a month on month ratio of + 33% / – 48%, and 62000 vehicles in the United States, with a month on month ratio of + 75% / – 18%, in line with expectations. We predict that the sales volume in China will exceed 6 million (including exports), that in Europe will exceed 2.8 million, that in the United States will exceed 1.3 million, and that in the world will exceed 10 million, an increase of 60% +.
From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to last until 2022. In 2022, there is still a double increase in volume and profit; The price rise of battery link fell to the ground, with an increase of 5-10%. Some car enterprises have followed the price rise, and new orders are strong. In the short term, Q1 production is flat month on month (MOM) and not light in the off-season, while the valuation of the electric vehicle sector is callback to 20-40x, which is at the lower limit of historical valuation. The Q4 performance of the leading companies exceeds market expectations. We are strongly optimistic about the oversold and reversal of the electric vehicle sector and strongly promote the leaders in all links. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emission will speed up the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. At the end of last year, the silicon material was slightly loose, and the components fell slightly to 1.8-1.9 yuan / watt. After that, there is a strong demand for photovoltaic installation, and the household continues to be hot. At the same time, the time-of-use electricity price policy promotes the development of industrial and commercial distribution and energy storage. In the great year of photovoltaic installation in 22 years, the installed capacity is expected to be 150-155gw in 21 years, an increase of 20% at the same time, It is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 22 years. The Q1 leader is in full production and the off-season is not light. It is optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders. The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the prosperity began to pick up from December last year. In January, the leading orders were further restored, and the leading strong was always strong. It is suggested to focus on the layout. The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. The focus will be on grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization, pumped storage and other directions, which will bring new opportunities. After the rush installation of wind power, the cost has decreased significantly, and the export has begun to be competitive. It is expected to develop steadily under the background of carbon neutrality in China.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery performance greatly exceeds expectations, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantages), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader, high capacity release and high increase period), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader in wet diaphragm, strong profitability) Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader in negative electrode and diaphragm coating), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (market expectation and profit inflection point of iron lithium demand supermarket), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (gradual recovery of general automation demand and comprehensive breakthrough of powertrain), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader in inverter and prospective layout of energy storage) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers and high growth period), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader in carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed market expectations and external supply of blade batteries accelerates), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (leader in cobalt salt and positive prepolymer), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader in series inverter, high performance growth) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary prepolymer, high-quality and rapid expansion of production by customers), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader of monocrystalline silicon wafer and components, strong comprehensive strength), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter and power of energy storage business), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (EVA and Poe leader, amount of photosensitive dry film), Hemai Co., Ltd. (the shipment of micro reverse leader is expected to double continuously, and the U.S. market begins to increase in volume) Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (global leader of new and old relays, supermarket market expectation in 2021), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte leader and fluorochemical exceed market expectation), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (integrated component leader, profit elasticity in 2022 can be expected), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (210 component leader and household system), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (silicon and perc battery leader, profit exceeds market expectation) Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (secondary equipment leader, benefit from power Internet of things), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) .
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
