Sub industry core week view
New energy: in 2021, the official data of renewable energy was officially released, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic, distributed and offshore wind power reached a new high, with good consumption; The price of silicon chip battery leader has been actively adjusted, which continues to confirm the strong demand for Q1 and the significant improvement of battery chip profit; The bidding of components of central enterprises was intensively announced, and the scale and time point showed a positive attitude, and the premium of n-type bid section was significant; The current location suggests actively arranging annual opportunities.
Hydrogen energy and fuel cell: with the opening of the Winter Olympics, nearly 1300 fuel cell vehicles have been put into use, and fuel cells have obvious advantages in the field of low temperature and heavy load; Xi Jinping emphasize the active and orderly development of light energy, silicon energy, hydrogen energy and renewable energy. As a secondary energy, hydrogen energy will play an important role in the new energy system.
Battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) performance greatly exceeded expectations, and continue to pay attention to the strong bargaining leader in the industrial chain. We believe that 4q21 is the node where the performance of the midstream begins to be realized, and 1q22 upstream lithium and other resource products will begin to gradually realize the performance, focusing on the changes in profit distribution caused by the price transmission of the industrial chain. In January 2022, the industrial production scheduling will continue to increase by about 5% month on month, and the off-season is not light. It is expected that from March, the new production capacity of the midstream head company will be put into operation gradually, the production scheduling will increase significantly month on month, and the capacity constraint of the high-energy consumption link is still strong; The sector recently pulled back to near pe30x in 22 years and began to enter the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong bargaining power, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum plastic film and other auxiliary materials with improved localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Power equipment and industrial control: since 2021q4, the power grid investment has accelerated upward. In 2022, the planned power grid investment of the State Grid exceeded 500 billion, and the total investment in the 14th five year plan is expected to exceed expectations. Among them, the investment in distribution network, digitization, amorphous transformer, UHV & flexible direct and other links is expected to continue to strengthen. In January, PMI remained above the boom and bust line, and the demand continued to pick up. In 2022, the demand for industrial control was better, the leader was expected to continue to exceed expectations, and the valuation cost performance of industrial control sector was prominent.
Important industry events this week
New energy: Huadian started the bidding of 15gw components + 13GW inverter in 2022; China Power Council predicts that 90 / 50gw of PV / wind power will be installed in China in 2022; The national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified power market system; Central and Longji (the second time in the year) successively raised the public quotation of silicon wafers; Tongwei released the public quotation of battery chips again after three months, and the quotation of 182 specifications is the first time; The centralized procurement and bid opening of 4.5gw components of State Power Investment Corporation, with significant n-type premium.
Hydrogen energy and fuel cell: Jiufeng group and Guohong hydrogen energy signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement, and the two sides will carry out long-term and in-depth cooperation in the field of hydrogen energy utilization; Qingdao West Coast new area issued the development plan of hydrogen energy industry, pointing out that by 2030, more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations will be built, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach more than 3000, and the installed capacity of fuel cell cogeneration system will reach 2MW.
Electric vehicles: the sales volume of new forces made a good start in January; Sales of electric vehicles in the United States increased year-on-year in January.
Power equipment and industrial control: None
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
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Risk tips:
The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; The effect of policy adjustment and implementation is lower than expected; The global epidemic worsened more than expected.
