The planning of the second batch of large scenic bases has been basically completed, and the total scale is expected to exceed 400gw
In the context of double carbon goals, the development rhythm of wind power and photovoltaic bases is accelerated. In the 14th five year plan and for a long time in the future, they will become the main force of new energy installation. The national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration and other departments have clearly supported the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases for many times. The first batch of large-scale wind and photovoltaic base projects on the published list have a total of 50 projects, with a total scale of 97.05gw. By the end of 2021, 75gw projects have been started, and the remaining projects will be started in Q1 of 2022, of which more than 45gw large-scale wind and photovoltaic base projects are required to be put into operation before the end of 2022. In early December 2021, the national energy administration again issued the notice on organizing the second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, requiring all provinces to report the list of the second batch of new energy bases before December 15. According to the report of Zhihui photovoltaic on February 5, 2022, the second batch of large base planning has been basically completed, with a total scale of more than 400gw, and will be implemented during the 14th and 15th five year plans, of which the amount arranged in the 15th five year plan will be relatively large. In terms of volume, the scale of over 400gw this time far exceeded the previous industry expectations; From the perspective of grid connection time, it does not conflict with the time of 2022 / 2023 / 2024 proposed in the previous declaration. It is expected that some of them can be connected to the grid successively according to the original requirements. In addition, there may be new projects in the later stage. It can be seen from the construction of Fengguang large base project that the top-level policy design is still conducive to the long-term development of new energy. Specifically, in the photovoltaic industry, we are optimistic about (1) the opportunity of power station development market + power market-oriented reform, Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) and other benefits; (2) Terminal links such as components and inverters with good competition pattern, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) benefit; (3) Auxiliary material industrial chains with good medium and long-term supply and demand, such as thermal field, adhesive film and diamond wire, benefit from technological innovation (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL energy, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) . In the wind power industry, we are optimistic about (1) core parts enterprises that can go global or realize domestic substitution, Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) and other benefits; (2) In the next few years, it is expected to realize the offshore wind power industry chain spanning from 1 to 10, Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Haili wind power, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) and other benefits; (3) The whole machine enterprises that benefited from the accelerated growth of installed capacity in 2022, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) and so on.
The second batch of large bases are concentrated in the desert and Gobi areas in the three north, combined with ecological governance and attention to consumption
Relying on the scenery resources, supported by the regional power grid, driven by the power transmission channel and aiming at efficient consumption, the large scenery base plans the scenery resource endowment and consumption conditions, focuses on the use of land resources in deserts, Gobi and desert areas, and realizes ecological benefits through development modes such as on-board power generation, off board planting, desertification control and land improvement, and comprehensive utilization of resources Economic benefits, carbon reduction benefits and other multiple benefits, while promoting the green and low-carbon transformation and development of China’s energy, can effectively drive industrial development and local economic development, and play an important role in China’s vigorous development of renewable energy to realize energy transformation. Based on the experience of the first batch of large-scale bases, the second batch of large-scale scenic bases are planned mainly based on kubri, Tengger and other deserts, by means of bidding after unified planning, combined with ecological governance. The projects of the first batch of bases are mainly reported by enterprises, and only a few bases have adopted the form of bidding, Therefore, there are some differences in the operation modes of the two batches of bases. In addition, the first batch of scenery bases combine outward delivery and local consumption, while the second batch of base planning pays more attention to consumption, mainly outward delivery, and emphasizes the joint delivery of “thermal power + new energy” by combining the existing coal power supply around the base and using the peak shaving capacity of thermal power.
Risk tip: the policy promotion is not as expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.
