Core view
The competition of public fund consignment channels has intensified, and the third-party consignment institutions have maintained strong growth. On the evening of January 28, CCBA released the data of the top 100 public funds held by fund selling agencies in the fourth quarter of 2021. According to the data, the holding scale of the top 100 fund selling agency stocks + mixed public funds increased by 4.93% to 6.46 trillion month on month, and the holding scale of non commodity public funds increased by 8.67% to 8.33 trillion month on month, which was higher than that in the third quarter. Although commercial banks still firmly occupy the position of “leader” of consignment channels, their proportion has declined quarter by quarter due to the continuous impact of independent third-party consignment channels. In terms of mixed stocks, as of 21q4, the number of third-party institutions selling on a commission basis increased by 10.11% to 1.71 trillion month on month, and the market share increased by 1.24pct to 26.42% month on month; In terms of non commodity funds, as of 21q4, the sales volume of third-party institutions increased by 16.69% to 2.88 trillion month on month, and the market share increased by 2.38pct to 34.61% month on month.
Ants and continue to perform beautifully every day, leading the third-party camp, and non mainstream third-party institutions have sprung up. In the camp of third-party consignment agencies, ant fund and Tiantian fund continue to maintain a leading position with obvious leading advantages. 1) In terms of equity hybrid funds, as of 21q4, the number of ant funds reached 727.8 billion, ranking second, while the number of funds per day reached 537.1 billion, surpassing Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) for the first time, ranking third. The quarterly compound growth rates of Tiantian fund and ant fund from 21q1 to 21q4 reached 12.72% and 8.37% respectively, ranking the top two in the top 10 camp of the market. 2) In terms of non commodity funds, as of 21q4, the holdings of ant fund and Tiantian fund reached 1.30 trillion and 673.9 billion respectively, ranking first and third. The quarterly compound growth rates of Tiantian fund and ant fund from 21q1 to 21q4 reached 15.94% and 13.41% respectively, which is also far higher than that of other Commercial Bank competitors. In addition, Shanghai Jiyu fund, teng’an fund and Beijing Huicheng Fund ranked 9th, 10th and 14th respectively in terms of non stock ownership of 21q4. The quarterly compound growth rate of 21q1-21q4 reached 45.48%, 19.71% and 67.57% respectively. It is not difficult to see that the third-party agency, with its strong online marketing system, traffic advantages and product strength, has gradually become the channel with the most growth potential in the field of fund agency sales. We continue to be optimistic about the third-party channel represented by ant and Tiantian fund.
Investment proposal and investment object
In terms of securities companies, double click on market liquidity and policy, continue to be optimistic about the spring market of the sector, select high-quality targets with fundamentals, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. At present, it is still the first to promote the main line of derivatives, recommending Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030, overweight), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (601688, overweight), and paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, not rated); Secondly, we should continue to pay attention to the main line of large public offering and recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (000776, buy), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (601377, increase Holdings).
In terms of diversified finance, A-Shares recommend Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (603300, buy) as the leading lessee of aerial working platform (AWP); Hong Kong stocks recommend Far East Hongxin (03360, buy), a leader in financial leasing, and BOC aviation leasing (02588, overweight), a leader in Asia Pacific Aircraft leasing; US stocks recommend BlackRock (BLK. N, overweight), a global asset management leader, and Noah wealth (Noah. N, buy), a third-party high net worth asset management leader.
In terms of insurance, the scale of the team has gradually bottomed out, the production capacity of the remaining team has been improved, and it is expected to start a good start gradually; The inflection point of property insurance has arrived, and we look forward to the synchronous improvement of premium and cor; The outlook of the equity market is optimistic, and the liberalization of the investment ceiling adds upward flexibility. We are optimistic about large insurance companies that actively promote reform and enhance production capacity through science and technology empowerment and cross sales, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. Follow up suggestions focus on Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (601318, buy), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (601601, not rated), AIA (01299, not rated).
Risk tips
The suppression of systemic risk on the performance and valuation of securities business; Stricter supervision than expected;
The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Related policy risks in diversified financial field.
