New energy vehicle enterprises welcomed a good start, and the sales volume of the first year exceeded expectations: in the middle of the first year, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle enterprises welcomed a good start, and the independent vehicle enterprises and new forces performed well, among which Byd Company Limited(002594) , Nezha and Zero run increased month on month, greatly exceeding the market expectations; Weilai delivered 9652 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.6% and a month on month increase of – 8%. In 22 years, Weilai has three new models et5 / et7 / ES7, and the sales volume can be expected; Ideal January 12268 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 128% and a month on month increase of – 12.9%. The delivery volume has exceeded 10000 for three consecutive months. Ideal 22 years will launch new extended range models. The capacity release of Changzhou and Beijing factories will gradually climb, and it is expected to usher in a rapid growth in sales volume; Xiaopeng delivered 12922 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 115% and a month-on-month increase of – 19.2%. The sales volume exceeded 10000 for five consecutive months, of which 6707 vehicles were delivered by P7, with a year-on-year increase of + 81%. In the future, with the completion of the technical transformation of Xiaopeng Zhaoqing production base, the production capacity will be further released; The new forces in the second tier performed brilliantly, and the sales of Nezha cars and zero running cars reached a new record. Among them, 11009 Nezha cars were delivered in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 402% and a month on month increase of + 87%, with a delivery volume of more than 10000 for three consecutive months; Zero run delivered 8085 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 434% and a month on month increase of + 3.6%. The delivery volume exceeded 200% for ten consecutive months.
Suggestion: the delivery capacity of new energy vehicles in the downstream continues to release, the high growth trend of the whole year is expected to continue, and the outlook of the industrial chain is optimistic for a long time. Although the prices of upstream materials such as lithium carbonate remain high at present, considering that the expansion of the new energy vehicle industry chain is still in the early stage, the cost reduction brought by the release of new production capacity and process improvement of the whole industry in the future has not been fully reflected, and under the background of high downstream climate and smooth cost transmission, we believe that the impact on the profitability of all links of the industry chain is still limited. Recently, the upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain have frequently signed cooperation agreements / purchase agreements. Under the background of the continuous large-scale shipment of new energy vehicles and power batteries from downstream customers and the rapid release of energy storage demand, the demand for guarantee and supply from downstream customers has increased, which is also a symbol of the high prosperity of the midstream battery material link in the future. We will continue to pay attention to the midstream link with better competition pattern, Optimistic about leading companies with cost advantages and performance advantages: 1) lithium battery manufacturers: the cost is expected to be transmitted to downstream host plants, and the inflection point of profit expectation is emerging; 2) Lithium copper foil race track: the supply gap is uncertain, and the leading enterprises are expected to benefit first; 3) Diaphragm track with good competition pattern and profitability: the gross profit margin of head diaphragm enterprises has remained above 40% in recent three years. The head enterprises have full production and sales. Under the rigid production expansion cycle, the leading enterprises give priority to the growth of demand market. With the advancement of overseas electrification process, the proportion of overseas customers is increased, which is expected to further improve profits; 4) Cathode & precursor: the growth rate of production and sales is considerable, the demand space for lithium iron phosphate is open in the future, the trend of high nickel of ternary cathode is clear, and leading enterprises actively expand production and seize the market share of high-end precursors; 5) Electrolyte race track: with the expansion of electrolyte production, the market is worried about its periodicity. The head company benefits from the long-term association orders, the impact of price disturbance will be stabilized next year, and the cost and profit advantages will be further highlighted through the overweight of new lithium salt business; 6) Lithium battery equipment: during the high-speed growth period of the 14th five year plan, the second production expansion tide of power battery was started, which superimposed the rapid growth of overseas demand. The major lithium battery manufacturers accelerated their layout in Europe, and China’s leading lithium battery equipment enterprises will obtain new demand growth points.
Risk tips
The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, and the policy is less than expected; New orders or delivery lower than expected; Risks of technological renewal; Market competition intensifies risks; Supply chain shortage risk, etc.
