Overall: last week (2022.01.24-2022.01.28), the CSI 300 rose or fell – 4.51%, the Shanghai index rose or fell – 4.57%, and the gem index rose or fell – 4.14%. The basic chemical industry rose or fell by – 3.26%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.25 points, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.31 points and the gem by 0.88 points. Its weekly rise or fall ranked seventh in the Shenwan industry.
Sector: the new materials index rose or fell – 3.39%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.12 points, the gem index by 0.75 points and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.18 points. The market of each sub industry in the new material index sector is highly differentiated. The top three sub industries are lithium battery (1.77%), silicone (0.35%) and carbon fiber (0.33%), while the top three sub industries are OLED material index (- 5.88%), degradable plastic index (- 5.36%) and semiconductor material (- 4.24%).
Individual stocks: in the new materials sector, 21 stocks achieved positive returns. The top gainers are: Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) (10.50%), Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) (7.47%), Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) (7.20%); The stocks with the largest decline are: Shenzhen Laibao High-Tech Co.Ltd(002106) (- 13.46%), Phichem Corporation(300398) (- 12.58%), Shantou Wanshun New Material Group Co.Ltd(300057) (- 11.21%).
Valuation: as of February 6, 2022, the PE (TTM) of the gem index was 26.46, and the PE (TTM) of the new materials sector was 40.33, with a premium rate of 52.42% relative to the gem index.
Industry highlights
1. The profit of chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry increased by 87.8% in 2021
2. National development and Reform Commission: new energy will fully participate in power market transactions in 2030
3. China’s first megaton carbon capture, utilization and storage project was completed
4. Green and low-carbon industry will meet huge incremental space
5. Carbon fiber composite materials make the torch of the Winter Olympic Games “fly”
Core view
Before the festival, the new materials sector continued to callback and seek opportunities in the undervalued sub industries. The new materials sector continued to callback last week. In the long run, the industrial policy support has been strengthened, the downstream demand has continued to grow, the localization substitution trend remains unchanged, and the long-term expectation is still good. Generally speaking, the new material industry in 2022 should focus on three investment logics: 1) import substitution: pay attention to cost performance and market development ability; 2) Policy promotion: Based on the industrial foundation, grasp the policy rhythm; 3) Consumption upgrading: pay equal attention to technological innovation and market development ability. At present, the valuation of molecular industries in the middle of the new materials sector (carbon fiber, lithium battery, lithium electrochemical chemicals, etc.) is at a dynamic low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance exceeding the expected target in the short term
The wave of carbon fiber industrialization has arrived, and the industry leader welcomes the historical opportunity. With the continuous development of China’s carbon fiber application market and the pull of downstream wind power / photovoltaic and other new energy fields, China’s carbon fiber demand shows a rapid growth trend. According to the data of Sao carbon fiber, China’s carbon fiber demand has increased from 8000 tons in 2008 to 49000 tons in 2020, with CAGR + 16.0% in 12 years, which is significantly higher than the global growth rate. The proportion of China’s demand in the world is also increasing, from 22.8% in 2008 to 45.7% in 2020. With the pull of new energy demand and the technological progress of Chinese enterprises, the rapid decline of costs has led to the improvement of profitability, and the capacity expansion is expected to speed up. In the future, the carbon fiber industry will continue to reduce costs through product technology improvement and scale effect, so as to realize “price” for “demand”. Therefore, leading enterprises will benefit from the wave of localization substitution and are expected to expand rapidly. It is suggested to pay attention to Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Hengshen shares, Zhongfu Shenying (to be listed) and other enterprises.
Risk tips
The risk that the epidemic situation may cause significant market fluctuations; Policy risk; The risk of technology development falling short of expectations.
