Events
According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, 251 million Chinese tourists will travel during the 7-day Spring Festival holiday in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, which is restored to 73.9% of the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to a comparable caliber. China's tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%, returning to 56.3% over the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019.
According to the data of the state film administration, from the new year's Eve on January 31 to the Spring Festival on the sixth day of the first month on February 6, 2022, the cumulative box office of China Film Co.Ltd(600977) market reached 6.035 billion yuan, ranking second in the box office of the Spring Festival in film history, with 114 million film viewers.
The Ministry of Commerce disclosed the consumption data of 11 small and long holidays in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Hunan, Shandong, Sichuan and other key monitoring provinces and cities nationwide. Among them, the department stores, supermarkets, specialty stores, catering and e-commerce enterprises monitored by the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce achieved sales of 5.17 billion yuan; During the seven days of the Spring Festival in Shanghai (from January 30 to February 5), the city's offline consumption payment was 37.1 billion yuan, an increase of 28.6% over the same period of the 2019 lunar calendar before the epidemic; The retail sales of major business districts and key monitored commercial enterprises in Chongqing reached 29.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%; Jiangsu Province has achieved a total sales volume of about 13.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, an increase of 23% compared with 2019; 283 key retail catering enterprises in Hunan Province sold a total of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%; The retail sales of 500 commercial enterprises monitored in Shandong Province reached 8.84 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year in 2021 and 7.5% year-on-year in 2019; The retail and catering enterprises monitored in Sichuan Province achieved a total sales (turnover) of 2.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year increase of 15.8% over the same period in 2019; 147 large shopping malls, supermarkets and catering enterprises in Hebei Province, which are mainly monitored by the Department of Commerce of Hebei Province, achieved commodity sales and operating revenue of 1.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; The 524 commercial circulation enterprises monitored by Shaanxi Provincial Department of Commerce achieved a total sales of 1.437 billion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year; The total retail sales of key catering enterprises in Ningxia increased by 10.34 billion yuan year-on-year; The retail sales of 33 enterprises under key monitoring in Guizhou Province were 105 million yuan.
Analysis and judgment
Latest views on the overall retail market:
For retail enterprises, the performance of 70 large and medium-sized holidays in the whole year will largely determine the incremental space of the whole year. At the beginning of the year, we mainly focused on the consumption of new year's day in early January and the consumption of Spring Festival in late January and early February. Based on our previous analysis, in normal years, the proportion of the sales volume of the Spring Festival Golden Week (seven days from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the first lunar month) in the total social consumption from January to February of that year has increased year by year. By 2019, the share has exceeded 15%, and by 2021, the share has decreased to about 11%. Affected by many factors such as the local Spring Festival and the fluctuation of the epidemic situation, it has declined, but its important position can not be ignored; In addition, the growth rate of retail sales during the Spring Festival largely represents the growth limit of social consumption from January to February.
At present, the Ministry of Commerce has not released the retail consumption statistics under the 7-day time dimension of the National Spring Festival Golden Week, but it can be seen from the existing cross-sectional data that the growth level of this year's Spring Festival is lower than that of the previous 7-day small and long holiday (i.e. the National Day holiday in 2021 is basically the same or slightly higher), but it has dropped to a certain extent compared with the performance of this year's new year's day. On the one hand, in the context of epidemic prevention and control, small-scale epidemic fluctuations have occurred in many places. At the same time, multiple factors such as the advocacy of local New Year celebrations since last year have been superimposed. The overall consumption continues the characteristics of less contact and less aggregation. The performance of supermarket compulsory channels and online channels for purchasing new year goods and daily necessities is more stable; On the other hand, the third day of last year was Valentine's day. Although it was extended to the 14th day of this year, it was actually close to the Spring Festival holiday. Therefore, in addition to traditional new year goods, the sales performance of jewelry, beauty makeup and other goods is also worth looking forward to.
On the whole, consumption on New Year's day and Spring Festival this year has basically achieved a stable start. The current consumer market environment and policy environment are relatively positive and optimistic. With the further promotion of China's epidemic control effect and vaccine popularization, China's economy is gradually returning to the previous growth track, residents' consumer confidence and the vitality of China's consumer market have recovered steadily, In 2022, the growth rate of social consumption will further approach the level before the epidemic. In order to reasonably guide the expectation of the consumer market, combined with the 2025 development plan of China's consumer market in the "14th five year plan" business development plan of the Ministry of Commerce, we conservatively predict that the year-on-year growth rate of social consumption in 2022 will be about 4.5% - 5.5%.
Characteristics of emerging consumer markets: the structure of the consumer market of "small and long holidays" in the early stage has changed temporarily. Affected by the epidemic, the performance of emerging mass consumer tourism and films with excellent early performance is less optimistic than expected. Spring Festival travel is greatly affected by the traditional festival return celebration. On the one hand, the advocacy of the local new year is still the same. On the other hand, the repeated epidemic in Beijing, Shenzhen and other places years ago has limited the travel of some people to a certain extent. Combined with tourism data, it is difficult to find one ticket to travel during the Spring Festival and gradually become difficult to find one room in surrounding hotels; In terms of film viewing, it is affected by the reduction of film viewing passengers, the increase of ticket prices and other factors.
Structural features in traditional consumer markets:
(I) the high-end positioning of offline optional channels and the theme activities of the business district play an active role in restoring passenger flow and boosting sales. The passenger flow of 52 key business districts in Beijing exceeded 22.306 million person times. The ice and snow economy brought consumption explosion points to the Spring Festival. Shopping malls and shopping centers attracted a large number of passenger flow due to ice and snow elements. According to the data of cat hunting mobile, the average total passenger flow of shopping malls in Beijing increased by 11.3% month on month compared with the last weekend before the festival, nearly 30% month on month compared with the working day before the festival, reaching the peak on the third day of the new year, More than 4.1 million passengers, of which, taking Xidan business district as an example, the average total passenger flow per day increased by more than 30% month on month (32.6%) over the last weekend before the festival. Shanghai shopping mall all day long, time-honored builders and heritage projects in the Yu Garden mall, China, create a new "old flavor and new experience" special block in Shanghai. The highest daily passenger traffic volume exceeds 300 thousand during the festival. Shanghai world port has launched the "prestige China year", the 7 day sales volume of festivals has increased by 30% over the pre holiday period. On site folk custom interaction, the sales of 7 days of the festival increased by more than 60% year-on-year. Taking the "2022 love fashion Chongqing Yuyue Spring Festival" as an opportunity, Chongqing jointly carried out international fashion shopping scenes such as Jiulong new business district, Vientiane city and Xicheng Tianjie, and carried out spring festival consumption activities with the theme of new year's big fun price and new year's market. During the festival, the retail sales of main business districts in the main city increased by 7.9% year-on-year. The local Chinese New Year is obviously good for department stores and shopping centers, especially in the first and second tier cities; Key business districts attract the rebound and growth of passenger flow in the form of theme activities, which plays a positive role in boosting sales and is the optimization of the supply side; Theme activities and other links that have a strong sense of experience and can bring additional value to consumers have gradually become the key means of drainage. Different activity themes can not only bring differentiated competitive advantages to the business district, but also link relevant brands and commodities to attract specific consumer groups to the store more specifically, so as to improve the possibility of actual consumption. During the Spring Festival in 2022, the elements of the year of the tiger and the concept of ice and snow winter Olympics are superimposed. Relevant theme exhibitions, indoor ski resorts and official licensed retail stores of the Winter Olympics have become new highlights of drainage.
(II) online channels guarantee Spring Festival supply, with quality improvement and consumption guarantee as the main line. The Ministry of Commerce, together with the central network information office, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the State Administration of market supervision and other departments, jointly guided e-commerce and related enterprises to hold the "2022 national online New Year Festival" to provide the service of "Spring Festival does not close and new year goods are delivered to home". According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, the general supply of necessities in local markets is sufficient, the price is generally stable, and the traditional new year goods, high-quality fresh Seasonal clothing, smart appliances, flowers, green plants and other commodities are sold well, time-honored restaurants and specialty restaurants are popular, skiing, skating and other ice and snow consumption are hot enough, and the consumer market has made a stable start; Among them, high-quality new year goods have become a hot spot of procurement, and consumption upgrading has created a better quality of life. At the same time, lifestyle leads the new trend of consumption. Taking prefabricated vegetables as an example, the sales have increased by 45.9% year-on-year. Smart appliances (such as mite remover, floor washer, smart projector and massage instrument) and whole house customization also have a good performance. The channel turnover of the live broadcast room of Taobao New Year's festival increased by 20.5% compared with last year, and the number of transactions increased by 16% compared with last year. The core categories are women's clothing, home decoration, food, 3C digital, jewelry, beauty makeup, mother and baby and other categories; According to the Spring Festival consumption data released by jd.com, as of the 5th, the turnover during the Spring Festival increased by more than 50% year-on-year. There was a strong demand for upgraded services. The turnover of life services, local play, car services, game / video services and maintenance increased by 287%, 206%, 148%, 109% and 77% year-on-year respectively.
(III) the duty-free consumption market is active, and promotional activities further promote the tax-free growth of outlying islands. According to the data released by Hainan Province, from January 30 to February 5, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in the province were 1.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%, of which the duty-free sales were 1.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153%; 277800 people went shopping duty-free, a year-on-year increase of 128%; The number of duty-free items purchased was 1651700, a year-on-year increase of 143%. During the Spring Festival, 10 off Island duty-free stores in Hainan launched consumption promotion activities one after another to activate the off Island duty-free market. Among them, activities such as "the blessing of the exemption is like a tiger", the "Spring Festival welfare release" of China travel investment, the "GDF Spring Festival does not close" of Haifa control, the "blessing of the tiger" of China export service, and the anniversary celebration of the deep exemption of "being grateful for you all the way" were held one after another, Welcomed by consumers. Tax free consumption is active. Under the current environment, the epidemic still affects cross-border travel, and the return heat of overseas consumption remains unabated. The main tax-free consumer categories are still aimed at incense, alcohol, tobacco and electronic products.
(IV) the consumption promotion policy further releases the consumption potential of residents. Before the festival, the Ministry of Commerce has made relevant work arrangements. While guiding and urging all localities to implement the prevention and control measures of the epidemic situation, it can effectively ensure the market supply during the festival, better meet the residents' consumption demand during the festival, not only prosper and activate the festival market atmosphere, but also effectively ensure the market supply. As an important means to promote consumption, while jointly holding various consumption promotion activities, local governments have not reduced the means of issuing consumption vouchers and digital RMB. Shenzhen, Guangdong (six commercial banks have issued 25 million yuan of digital RMB and launched the "100 plus 50" digital RMB reduction activity) Nanchang, Jiangxi Province (500000 yuan consumption coupons, directly driving consumption of 1 million yuan and indirectly driving consumption of 5 million yuan), Fuzhou, Fujian Province (more than 35 million consumption coupons, with an amount of more than 550 million yuan), Xiamen, Fujian Province (3.15 million new year consumption coupons, with an amount of more than 52 million yuan) Taiyuan, Shanxi Province (32635 coupons with 6 million yuan in the first round, 244765 coupons with 4.502 million yuan in the second round), Sichuan Province (more than 11.7 million yuan of cultural and tourism coupons), Hubei Province (10 million yuan of new year stay coupons in Shiyan City, 12 million yuan in Jingmen City, 6 million yuan in Xiangyang City and 20 million yuan in Yichang City) Relevant preferential policies have been implemented in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province (100 million yuan new year warm heart coupon) and other places. The issuance of consumer vouchers and digital RMB benefits the people, boosting consumers' consumption ability and enthusiasm from the demand side, and constantly leveraging the multiplier effect; In addition, some consumer vouchers have specific consumption direction guidance, which has clearly driven the sales growth of relevant channels and categories such as local supermarkets, shopping malls, cultural tourism, catering and accommodation, 3C household appliances and automobiles to a certain extent.
Investment advice
Based on the consumption data of the Spring Festival holiday, we continue to maintain the two major themes of "digitization" in the annual strategy of 2021 and "specialization and innovation" under medium and high-end consumption "in the annual strategy of 2022. In combination with the requirements of the central economic work conference for stability and progress in stability, we focus on recommending high business certainty Manufacturer brands with certain brand influence and channel brands with certain price protection and favorable price ability; In addition, taking into account the recent recurrence of small-scale outbreaks in many places, we believe that we still need to pay attention to investment opportunities in basic livelihood industries. The recommendations should focus on the following recommendations, which focus on the following recommendations: the Department department store (002419. SZ) (002419. SZ (002419. SZ), {{{ Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) (603708. SH), {{ Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) (002697. SZ (002697. SZ) (002697. SZ), {{ Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) (300755. SZ), {30075755} (300755. SZ), {{{ Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (600315. SH), {{{ Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (600315. SH), {{{{603605605605605605605 (603605605605605605. SH), {{} (601939393939393939393939393939393939393939370707070707070707070707070707070707070707070707070707070707070707070988. Sh. 9} (605009. SH) Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) （300888.SZ）、 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) （003006.SZ）。
Risk tips
The overseas epidemic continues to exceed the expected risk and the risk of continuous lack of consumer confidence.
