Abstract
1. Annual credit forecast: it is estimated that the credit increment in 2022 will be 21 trillion, a slight increase of 1 trillion over 2021, and the growth rate will decline by 0.7pc to 10.9%.
The supply side depends on the credit line and willingness of financial institutions. ① In terms of quota, the current policy environment, capital constraints and capital constraints do not form hard constraints. The people’s Bank of China proposed to “enhance the stability of total credit growth”, and it is expected that the credit line in 2022 will not be less than that in 2021. ② It depends on the change of credit risk and willingness. With steady growth, banks are expected to increase their willingness to invest in 2022.
The demand side depends on the strength of the real economy and the tightness of financing policies. ① According to the Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) macro team, the real GDP growth rate in 2022 is expected to be 5.6%, 0.5pc faster than the compound growth rate of 19-21 years, driving the repair of credit demand. ② Financing policy: in 2022, the implementation of real estate policy will be corrected, and the supporting policies in the fields of green, inclusive and manufacturing will be superimposed. The financing environment is expected to be relaxed.
2. Key points of credit demand: steady growth, capital construction first and greater efforts; Real estate rectification, the demand has not improved yet, and it still needs to be closely observed in the future.
Infrastructure demand: it is expected that the infrastructure investment in 2022 will be stronger than that in 2021, driving the repair of infrastructure credit demand. ① In terms of investment capacity, we can pay attention to the issuance plan of special bonds and the reserves of local infrastructure projects. At present, the reserves of special bonds and infrastructure projects are sufficient. The net financing of 2021q4 special bonds reached 1.4 trillion, the highest since 2015; The number of major projects and annual investment amount in 2022 in all regions have increased compared with 2021; ② Investment willingness, pay attention to the steady growth momentum of local governments, that is, local economic growth targets and the commencement of major projects. At present, local governments have a strong driving force for steady growth. The GDP growth target in 2022 in most regions is higher than the compound GDP growth rate from 2019 to 2022. At the same time, the rhythm of the commencement ceremony of major projects is significantly earlier than that in 2021.
Real estate demand: the mortgage increment is expected to be 3.8 trillion yuan in 2022, maintaining the level in 2021; The growth rate of development loans is expected to rise slightly to 2%. ① Mortgage: focus on commercial housing sales. In January 2022, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 30% year-on-year, indicating that residents’ demand for house purchase is still weak. Mortgage regulation is relaxed, and the increment of mortgage is expected to remain stable. ② Corporate: mainly development loans, focusing on land transactions. The change of land transaction is about one year ahead of the development loan. The growth rate of land transaction price in 2021 is 2.8%, which is expected to drive the growth rate of development loan in 2022.
3. Annual social finance forecast: it is estimated that the social finance increment in 22 years will be 33.1 trillion, an increase of 3.8 trillion year-on-year; The growth rate was 10.5%, up 0.2pc from 21 years.
Government bonds. Assuming that the deficit ratio is 3.2% and the nominal GDP growth rate is 7.4% in 2022, it is estimated that the national debt and local general debt will increase by about 3.9 trillion, and the special debt is expected to increase by 3 trillion.
Corporate bonds and uncoated notes. The economic environment for steady growth in 2022 is similar to that in 2019. It is assumed that the increment of credit bonds and uncoated bills is the same as that in 2019, about 3.3 trillion and – 0.5 trillion respectively.
Entrusted loans and trust loans. Regulatory pressure is the main factor restricting the growth of entrusted loans and trust loans. Assuming that the increment in 2022 is consistent with that in 2020, it is about – 1.5 trillion.
4. Judgment on the rhythm of the whole year: it is expected that credit and social finance are expected to achieve a good start in January, with a significant increase year-on-year; The increase trend in February is expected to continue.
Credit: the growth rate is expected to be high before and low after. It is mainly considered that the policy should be advanced and the infrastructure investment should be guided. The credit demand is expected to be released in the first half of the year. It is estimated that the credit supply in January reached 4 trillion, an increase of about 400 billion year-on-year; It is expected to continue to increase year-on-year in February.
Social Finance: the growth rate of social finance is expected to rise first and then decline in 2022, mainly due to the influence of the base. In January 2022, social finance is expected to reach 5.5 trillion, an increase of about 300 billion year-on-year, corresponding to the growth rate of social finance balance of 10.3%.
5. Risk warning: economic growth stalled, bad loans broke out sharply, and credit was lower than expected.
