Semiconductor industry research weekly: the market may have exceeded the pessimistic expectation in advance

Market overview of the week before the Spring Festival (1 / 24-1 / 28):

The semiconductor market underperformed the main index in the week before the Spring Festival (1 / 24-1 / 28). The Shenwan semiconductor industry index fell 5.71%, the gem index fell 4.14%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 5.00%, the small and medium-sized board index fell 4.02%, and wandequan a fell 5.01%. The semiconductor industry index underperformed the main index.

Semiconductor segments fell as a whole. Among the semiconductor segments, the semiconductor material segment fell 1.6%, the semiconductor equipment segment fell 3.2%, the discrete device segment fell 4.4%, the semiconductor manufacturing segment fell 5.1%, the packaging and testing segment fell 5.5%, and the IC Design segment fell 6.6%.

A number of overseas semiconductor companies disclosed their performance, and the shortage of semiconductors may continue in 2022.

With the introduction of more and more cloud computing products (YC + YoY) and the next generation of AMD products, the company’s revenue is expected to double year-on-year in 2021 due to the introduction of YC + yoy’s cloud computing products in 2021.

Qualcomm: the revenue in the last quarter was US $10.705 billion, yoy + 30.0%, of which the revenue of mobile phone chips was US $6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%; IOT chip sales reached US $1.5 billion, an increase of more than 40%; The revenue of RF front-end chips and automotive chips was US $1.1 billion and US $256 million respectively. The company believes that it is at the beginning of one of the biggest opportunities in history. In the next 10 years, the company’s potential market will expand more than 7 times to about 700 billion US dollars.

NXP: the company achieved a revenue of US $3.039 billion in the last quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 21.2%. The company believes that the chip shortage will continue until 2023.

Infineon: the company achieved a revenue of € 3.159 billion in the last quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1%. The company believes that so far, the demand for semiconductors far exceeds the supply. Electrification and digitization continue to promote the substantial growth of the company’s target market. The company expects the global semiconductor shortage to continue this year.

During the Spring Festival, overseas semiconductor stocks performed strongly, and the market’s concern about the semiconductor cycle may have been “ahead of schedule” and “excessive” response. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.5% in the past week, showing strong performance in major global indexes. Among the S & P 500 industry index, the semiconductor and equipment index rose 5.0% in the past week, second only to the automobile and parts index. The market has never stopped worrying about the semiconductor cycle. With the increasingly serious rise in the price of semiconductors in 2021 and the general correction of global semiconductor stocks since the beginning of the year, we believe that the current market’s worry about the semiconductor cycle has been “ahead” and “excess” pricein into the current stock price. As expected by overseas semiconductor companies, the shortage of semiconductors may continue in 2022, The short-term rapid correction may improve the cost performance of the semiconductor sector.

It is recommended to pay attention to:

1) semiconductor design: Sg Micro Corp(300661) / 3Peak Incorporated(688536) / Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) / Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) / Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) / Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) / Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) / Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) / Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) / Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) / Bestechnic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688608) / Shanghai Fullhan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(300613) / Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) / Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) / Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) / Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) / Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) / Shanghai Fudan

\u3000\u30002)IDM: Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) / Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) / Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) / Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460)

3) wafer foundry: Huahong semiconductor / Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) ;

4) semiconductor equipment materials: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) / Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) / Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) / Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) / Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) / Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) / Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) / Grinm Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(600206) ;

Risk warning: the epidemic situation continues to deteriorate; The impact of trade war; The demand is less than expected

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