Weekly view:
The growth rate of real estate loans fell: on January 30, the central bank released the statistical report on the loan investment direction of financial institutions in 2021. At the end of 2021, the balance of real estate development loans was 12.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 5.2 percentage points compared with the end of the previous year; The balance of individual housing loans was 38.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points over the end of the previous year.
Under the overall tightening of pre-sale capital supervision in 2021, the slowdown of real estate loan growth has exacerbated the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises, and the second and third rounds of land auction have significantly cooled down. We believe that the financing side policy will continue to correct the deviation, so as to meet the reasonable loan demand of high-quality real estate enterprises and enhance the land acquisition ability of high-quality enterprises.
The CBRC working meeting emphasized promoting the virtuous circle of the real estate industry: on January 24, the 2022 CBRC working meeting was held in the form of video. Adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, continue to improve the long-term mechanism of “stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations”, and implement policies to promote the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
The CBRC meeting maintained the consistency of policies with the central economic work conference. We believe that in order to maintain the appropriate liquidity of real estate enterprises, financial institutions will increase the amount of development loans to enterprises with good credit; At the same time, accelerate the mortgage delivery and promote the sales collection of real estate enterprises.
We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Industry tracking
Sales review (01.29-02.04): the total transaction area of 33 key monitoring cities was 645000 m2, down 82.4% from last week; In 2022, a total of 15.403 million square meters were traded, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 44.6%. Among them, 280000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, down 67.2% from last week. In 2022, 3406000 square meters were sold, down 36.5% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 232000 m2, down 87.8% from last week. In 2022, 7.921 million m2 were sold, down 26.7% year-on-year; The third tier cities sold 133000 square meters, down 85.5% from last week. In 2022, a total of 4.076 million square meters were sold, down 64.9% year-on-year. The decline in sales this week was affected by the statistics of the Spring Festival holiday.
Land supply (01.24-01.30): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 1.51 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 8.03 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 88.4%, and the supply-demand ratio is 0.58. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 2367 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 10999 yuan / m2, with a month on month increase of 12.4% and a year-on-year increase of 186.7%.
Land transaction (01.24-01.30): the planned construction area of residential land transaction in Baicheng is 990000 m3. In 2022, the cumulative transaction volume is 13.91 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 84.0%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 5449 yuan / m2, a month on month increase of 112.5%, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and the overall premium rate was 1.0%. In 2022, the average floor price was 3841 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, and the premium rate was 2.6%, a decrease of 12.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
