Event: Kerui released the sales data of top 100 real estate enterprises in January 2022. The full caliber monthly sales of top 10, top 30 and top 50 real estate enterprises decreased by 33.3%, 33.9% and 35.1% respectively year-on-year; The sales area decreased by 31.1%, 34.4% and 35.4% respectively year-on-year.
In January, the full-scale sales of top 10 real estate enterprises fell by more than 30%; in January, the full-scale sales amount of most of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased. Top 10 real estate enterprises achieved a total sales of 223.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%; Top30 achieved total sales of 387.4 billion yuan, down 33.9% year-on-year; The top 50 real estate enterprises achieved a total sales of 469.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%; Key monitoring real estate enterprises achieved sales of 440.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7%.
The sales decline of the leading real estate enterprises is relatively slow, which reflects the strong anti risk ability of the leading real estate enterprises under the background of the downward market prosperity. We believe that the differentiated policies on financing and pre-sale fund supervision will accelerate this trend and further promote the concentration of the industry to the leading real estate enterprises.
The average sales price of the top 20 real estate enterprises is relatively stable, and the price reduction is obvious after the top 20: the average sales price of the top 10 real estate enterprises is 13946 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, which is mainly affected by the decline of the average sales price of China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; The average sales price of top30 real estate enterprises was 14918 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; The average sales price of top 50 real estate enterprises was 15199 yuan / m2, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; Focus on monitoring the average sales price of real estate enterprises of 14891 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. Among the top 20 enterprises, the average sales price of the remaining enterprises decreased by about 4 / 3, and the average sales price of the remaining enterprises decreased.
Although after 20 real estate enterprises adopt the strategy of volume for price, the effect is not obvious. Among the 48 real estate enterprises under key monitoring, the total sales area of the top 20 enterprises in the top 100 decreased by 34.6% year-on-year, while the total sales area of the remaining real estate enterprises decreased by 59.2% year-on-year. This reflects the positive impact of excellent product power and brand power of quality real estate enterprises on sales. We believe that the market share of quality real estate enterprises will continue to increase.
The performance of state-owned enterprises was slightly better than that of private enterprises: among the top 50 real estate enterprises, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises achieved total sales of 129.4 billion yuan and 340.5 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 34.6% and 35.3%; The total equity sales were 93.9 billion yuan and 233.9 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.4% and 36.6%; The total sales area is 6.7 million m3 and 24.22 million m3 respectively; The total average sales price was 19315 yuan / m2 and 14060 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% and a decrease of 1.0%.
Among the top 50 real estate enterprises, the sales price performance of state-owned enterprises is slightly better than that of private enterprises. In the market environment of rapid decline in sales boom, from the perspective of price, private enterprises rely more on price reduction and promotion to promote project sales, while the average sales price of state-owned enterprises remains stable.
Investment suggestion: we believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Risk warning events: the tightening of financing environment exceeds expectations, the tightening of real estate policies exceeds expectations, and the quoted data lags behind or is not timely
