Basic conclusion
Looking back to 2021: the recovery of catering hotels is still in progress, but there are structural highlights such as enterprises above the quota and subdivision tracks. In 2021, the current price GDP of accommodation and catering industry increased by 17% year-on-year, and the two-year compound growth rate was – 0.1%, which was 4pct higher and 8pct lower than the overall GDP respectively; The total amount of catering service zero was 4689.5 billion yuan, an increase of 19% at the same time and a two-year compound growth rate of 0.2%, which was 6 PCT higher and 3 PCT lower than that of the whole service zero. The recovery is still in progress. Highlights: 1) catering enterprises above the quota account for 22% of the total amount of catering enterprises, up 2pct from 2019, reflecting stronger anti risk ability. Branding and chain operation are still the general trend of the industry. 2) Restaurants and hotels have recovered, and the growth rate of new registration of relevant enterprises has rebounded to about 35% and 5% respectively. The opening speed of pubs, bakeries and fried buns has ranked among the top 20 for three consecutive years from 2019 to 2021, and the track has maintained a high landscape.
Spring Festival Catering: the growth rate of running water has increased near the Spring Festival, and the average performance of business stores is relatively bright. Prefabricated dishes and takeout have become new choices for new year’s Eve dinner. Since 2h21, the flow intensity of people in the business district has declined repeatedly due to the epidemic. It is expected that the Spring Festival in 2022 will be lower than that in the same period in 2021 and 2019. Since the beginning of the year, catering is still under pressure, and the overall turnover is still more than 40% lower than the benchmark date, but the growth rate has increased near the Spring Festival. The number of stores opened was also less than that on the benchmark day, but the average performance of stores that maintained business during the Spring Festival was better. From New Year’s Eve to the sixth day of the year, the consumption of takeout increased by 83% and 149% on average compared with the benchmark day, and the growth rate was higher than that in the previous holidays such as new year’s day, national day and Mid Autumn Festival. The attention of new year’s Eve dinner is higher than that in previous years. Young people gradually take the lead in New Year’s Eve dinner, and the restaurant reservation in low-risk areas is better than that in last year; The takeout habit extended to the new year’s Eve meal, and the number of merchants offering new year’s Eve meal packages on meituan online increased by more than 118% at the same time; Prefabricated dishes meet the demands of family delicacy and convenience. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, the sales of prefabricated dishes increased by 46% in 2022.
Spring Festival Hotels: the migration intensity is higher than that of last year. Local and surrounding tours drive theme hotels, and returning home for the Spring Festival drives rural hotels. The accommodation market is rising steadily. As of February 6, the migration intensity of the Spring Festival is about 157% of that in 21 years, but it is slightly lower than that in 2019. In January, the Mau and use duration of liquor travel related apps picked up. As of February 5, the search popularity of Ctrip hotels during the Spring Festival increased by 81% year-on-year. Local people prefer local travel and peripheral travel. According to Ctrip data, as of February 5, the order volume of local hotels accounted for about 60%, the order volume of parent-child theme hotels increased by 185% and 113% respectively, which is expected to account for 55% and 12% of the total order volume respectively, and the reservation volume of ski theme hotels increased by 54%. Featured hotels such as e-sports, script killing, video and audio in local scenes are popular. The acceptance of returning people to stay in hotels during the Spring Festival has increased. During the Spring Festival, the proportion of Ctrip from third, fourth and fifth tier cities has increased by 13%, 34% compared with 2019, and the order volume has increased by 30%. The order volume of rural hotels has more than doubled compared with that during the Spring Festival last year.
Investment advice
The overall performance of catering hotels during the Spring Festival in 2022 is relatively stable, and the epidemic situation is still the biggest uncertain factor in the industry. Look for structural opportunities: 1) in the catering industry, the demand for prefabricated dishes at the family end is gradually released, so it is recommended to pay attention to Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ; The average performance of business stores is bright, and the catering enterprises with young brand, stable operation and efficient single store model are expected to benefit. It is suggested to pay attention to jiumaojiu, hailun company, etc. 2) In the hotel industry, peripheral tourism drives the consumption of relevant theme hotels. It is suggested to pay attention to chain hotel groups with fast medium and high-end layout and can undertake the passenger flow of popular scenic spots, such as Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Huazhu group, etc.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
