This week's view
[Baijiu]: during the Spring Festival, high-end wine is steady and regional wine is excellent.
Plate review: the sector adjustment range was large in the week before the festival
January 24th ~1 28, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.66%, the food and beverage sector fell 5.22%, the Baijiu sector fell more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, or 5.12%. The specific Baijiu sector: Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (+1.09%), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (-1.81%), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (-2.37%), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (-2.78%) decline after the fall, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) decline over 8.7%. The factors that inhibit the sector rise are still being deductive: first, the market is worried that the recent Baijiu Spring Festival sales will be greatly affected by the epidemic situation, and then affect the replenishment of 22Q channels, thereby affecting the performance of 22Q2 report end (part of the epidemic area is slow in channel feedback). Second, the time point when Maotai proposed the factory price may be less than expected; Third, the consumption tax is heating up and the market is worried; Fourth, the increase in US bond yields has increased the market's concern about foreign capital outflow.
Spring Festival update - the performance of high-end liquor is stable, and the performance of regional liquor is excellent
Baijiu Baijiu, a cigarette and liquor vendor in 40+, Anhui, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangxi, Shaanxi, Liaoning, Hunan, Shanghai City, and other 10 Super key liquor producing provinces in Jiangsu during the Spring Festival, according to the structure and channel characteristics of liquor channels, found that the high-end liquor manufacturers were stable and the performance of the second high-end liquor was obvious. The main business of the liquor was Anhui, and the Guangxi was the largest supermarket in the world. Hui liquor and Su liquor have obvious demand for replenishing inventory after the festival.
[three characteristics of the Spring Festival] there are serious regional differentiation, the market share is concentrated to mature items, and the importance of demand pull is highlighted
1) there are new manifestations of differentiation - the feedback differentiation of regional mobile sales is serious, and the three elements of "increased return rate + good economic environment + small impact of the epidemic" are the common characteristics of regions with good mobile sales. We believe that it is difficult to divide East China, North China and central China. Even some East China regions with small impact of the epidemic and good economic environment are mediocre, while Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other regions that meet the requirements of "increased return rate + good economic environment + small impact of the epidemic" are excellent.
2) new performance of centralization - under the new characteristics of consumption upgrading, the market share is concentrated to mature single products, new products are only in large quantities in advantageous markets, and the trend of brand centralization continues. This year's Spring Festival, the top enterprises enjoyed a centralized dividend rather than a structural improvement dividend. The reason behind this is that consumers began to pursue "cost performance" in the process of consumption upgrading. Correspondingly, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and other mature single products of liquor enterprises achieved large volume in the advantageous areas of the base camp during the Spring Festival this year, and the new Jianxiang 518 also performed well in the old base camp market; At the same time, in the 1000 yuan price band, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) achieved steady growth under last year's high base and still maintained a high share, while the performance of Xijiu, Langjiu and other brands that have risen strongly in recent years is weaker than that of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) .
3) the final outcome lies in the cultivation of consumers - with the gradual homogenization of channel operation, the final outcome will be determined by the demand pull. We found that during the Spring Festival, the data feedback from supermarkets and chain stores in Dalian was excellent, while the feedback from small and medium-sized tobacco hotels was general, mainly because the brand stores had fixed / high viscosity consumer groups, while the consumer groups behind tobacco hotels were relatively scattered, which is the same for wine enterprises.
[dynamic sales feedback] large regional differences / large brand dynamic sales differences
1) high end and sub high end liquor: the sales of high-end liquor are stable, and the sales of regional liquor are slightly higher than expected. ① For high-end liquor, it is observed that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) sells well in the price band of 1000 yuan: under the condition of high base last year, terminals generally feedback that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) Spring Festival sales are flat or slightly increased compared with last year, and terminals are generally confident that their prices will continue to move up during the Spring Festival; Guojiao has obvious good feedback only in a few areas; The performance of other thousand yuan products is flat; ② For the secondary high-end regional liquor, the transaction price of Guoyuan Sikai and mengzhilan m3 crystal version in Northern Jiangsu is basically the same, the price of crystal dream and tianzhilan upgraded version has increased significantly, the channel thrust has been significantly improved compared with last year, tianzhilan has basically realized the replacement, and the channel feedback is that Yanghe and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) terminals are out of stock. The consumption of Hui liquor at the price below 100 yuan has gradually moved upward, and the feedback of dynamic sales has increased significantly. Among them, Gu 16 / 20 continues to maintain excellent performance, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) 10-year growth is obvious, the performance of Yingjia Dongzang series is excellent, and Yanghe has a certain visibility.
2) medium and high-end: the regional characteristics are obvious, and the structural upgrading is still continuing. Jiangsu is dominated by Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Yanghe and Shuanggou, among which the northern part of Jiangsu is soft and elegant and the Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) collection is excellent, while the southern part of Jiangsu is dominated by Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) collection, Yanghe Haitian, langpai Tequ T6 and the national edge, and the proportion of Yanghe products is higher; The mainstream price in Anhui has risen to 200 yuan, and Gujing, kouzi and Yingjia medium and high-end products have excellent performance.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating performance this week is stable and the overall inventory performance is healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the wholesale price of Feitian loose bottles is about 2750-2900 yuan, and the wholesale price of the whole box is about 3300-3400 yuan. Recently, some dealers have paid until February, and it is expected to complete about 25% of the annual quota (from January to February). The recent price increase of series wine and non-standard wine + the release of new 1935 + the launch of Chinese Zodiac wine earlier than last year + the dealers can implement the unplanned quota of non-standard products will contribute to the ton price of the first quarter; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the wholesale price this week is stable at 970-980 yuan, and the wholesale price of classic clothes is about 1700-1800 yuan. Since the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , contracts are being signed in the coming year, and the payment is expected to be collected by 40% before the Spring Festival; Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the rated price is about 920-930 yuan. The payment collection of Guojiao in 21 years has been completed (+ 35%), and the growth target of Guojiao next year is 30%. The overall performance of the rated price is stable.
Investment suggestion: the structural market is still in progress. It is suggested to pay attention to the gold stock Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) in February
Based on the three differentiated characteristics of the Spring Festival observation, we believe that we need to select the target by grasping the short-term catalysis + dynamic sales and inventory prediction (determining the 22q2 performance) + the progress of payment collection (determining the 22q1 performance) + the long-term development direction - we recommend to pay attention to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (marketing reform + non-standard price increase of series wine + new product listing = thickened performance + still expected price increase) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (the management will gradually stabilize + marginal improvement logic), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (continuous internal reform + marginal improvement logic), Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) (low base of dynamic sales + continuous release of potential energy of Dongzang series + continuous channel reform).
II. [food sector]:
Plate review: the food sector fell as a whole in the week before the festival
Plate growth: food processing sector fell 7.01%, of which seasoning sector fell 7.10%, dairy sector fell 6.16%, meat sector fell 7.33%.
Individual stocks rose and fell: only Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (+ 3.32%) and Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) (+ 0.79%) rose. In the meat products sector, the smaller decreases are Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (- 5.13%), Jinzi Ham Co.Ltd(002515) (- 5.31%), Jiangxi Huangshanghuang Group Food Co.Ltd(002695) (- 8.66%); The condiment sector saw smaller declines in Zhongjing Food Co.Ltd(300908) (- 3.28%), Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) (- 3.62%) and Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) (- 4.30%); In the dairy sector, Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co.Ltd(600429) (+ 0.79%) rose slightly,; Gains were led by Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (+ 3.32%) in the food composite sector.
Update this week: seasoning Spring Festival data tracking; Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882)
Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) : the channel favorable price process is good, and the company's 22-year performance may exceed expectations
[January channel moving pin]
Revenue is expected to decline year-on-year, mainly because the price increase affects some sales + the high base in the same period last year.
[implementation progress of price increase]
1) progress of sub channels: the distribution channels have basically achieved favorable prices, more than half of the price increases of the five business supermarket systems have been implemented, and the online platforms (e-commerce, community group purchase, etc.) are in the initial stage;
2) expected time point of completion of favorable price: the company is upgrading its products (from Chinese red version to Guochao version), and it is expected to complete favorable price by the end of February. After the completion of favorable price, the company will carry out large-scale promotion activities from March;
3) the company has not raised the current price of competitive products by 5.5 yuan, and the company has not raised the current price of competitive products by 5.5 yuan.
Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) : the controlling shareholder Mengniu increased its holdings, demonstrating its confidence in long-term development
On January 28, 2022, the company announced that the controlling shareholder Inner Mongolia Mengniu would increase its holding of 1493800 shares / 6360000 shares respectively by means of centralized bidding on January 10, 2022, January 27, 2022 and January 28, 2022, with a total increase of 7853800 shares, accounting for 1.52% of the total share capital of the company. After the equity change, Inner Mongolia Mengniu held 154.8 million shares of the company, accounting for 29.99% of the total share capital. On the occasion of the correction, Mengniu increased its holdings, demonstrating Mengniu's confidence in the long-term development of the company.
Food data is still recovering, waiting for demand to pick up and focusing on opportunities in segments.
1) the catering data in December was still declining, but the year-on-year decline was slightly narrowed compared with the previous month, and the retail sales of grain, oil and food continued to grow year-on-year. In December, the social zero data was released. The social zero data increased by 1.7% year-on-year and decreased month on month. From the perspective of the food and beverage industry, the catering revenue decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in December, slightly narrowed compared with the growth rate of - 2.7% in November; From January to December, catering increased by 18.6% year-on-year. From the perspective of commodity retail sales, the retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by 11.3% year-on-year in December, slightly lower than the growth rate of 14.8% in November; From January to December, the retail sales of grain, oil and food increased by 10.8% year-on-year.
2) we believe that the current demand is still picking up and pay attention to the opportunities of subdivided sectors. The catering data continued to decline in December. We believe that it is related to the impact of policy requirements such as the emergence of scattered epidemic situations and local Chinese New Year celebrations; The retail sales of grain, oil and food are less affected due to the rigid demand. On the whole, the demand and terminal data are still recovering, but there are still opportunities in the subdivided sectors. For example, with the subsequent price increase effect and the weakening impact of channel reform, the performance of the seasoning, leisure snacks and other sectors is expected to boost; The performance of high-quality leading companies such as dairy products is relatively stable and has certain anti risk ability; The prosperity of emerging industries such as frozen baking and quick freezing continues to rise, and the follow-up potential is huge. We should continue to pay attention to the opportunities of food segmentation.
3) 22Q1 Baijiu sector allocation is better than food, food sector should wait for the turning point. At present, the terminal demand for food is still recovering, and the data does not show an inflection point; At the same time, with the high base of 22q1 and the upward pressure on the cost of raw materials (the effect of price rise has not been fully reflected), the fundamentals are expected to be under pressure. In the food sector, we think we can wait for the inflection point, but we can pay attention to the marginal improvement opportunities of some stocks.
Investment suggestion: maintain the previous investment logic, and it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the target of marginal improvement of performance. For the current performance of the food sector, we recommend three main investment lines.
1) main line of investment in food and catering Industrialization: it is recommended to pay continuous attention to: Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.Ltd(603020) , Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) , Namchow Food Group( Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) . 2) Valuation adjustments have been gradually put in place and new businesses have increased α， It is suggested to pay continuous attention to: Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) ; 3) Investment target with price increase logic.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations; Baijiu sales recovered less than expected. Food safety risks; The sample may have statistical deviation.
