Industry core view:
Last week (2022.1.24-1.28), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by – 6.0%, the CSI 300 index rose by – 4.5%, and the machinery industry lost 1.5pct compared with the CSI 300 index. Shenwan 31 first-class industries have no rising sectors, and the mechanical equipment industry ranks 25th, with the overall performance in the downstream.
Photovoltaic equipment: in 2021, 54.88gw of photovoltaic equipment will be newly installed, and CLP expects 90gw of photovoltaic equipment to be newly installed in 22 years. It is optimistic about the demand for photovoltaic equipment this year. This year’s n-type industrialization has accelerated: 1) recently, n-type battery projects have been intensively put into operation, and Jingke 8gwtopcon has been put into operation, with an average mass production efficiency of 24.5%; Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) 8GW heterojunction battery and its supporting projects are located in Rui’an, Zhejiang Province; Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) it is proposed to raise 5 billion yuan to expand the capacity of 5GW heterojunction battery. 2) Maiwei heterojunction equipment stationed Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) . 3) Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) hjtpecvd has been verified in Jinneng technology. At present, the average efficiency of battery chips is 24.38%, and the average efficiency of the optimal batch is 24.55%. This year, the replacement of p-type battery by n-type battery is accelerated, and the mass production efficiency of TOPCON and hjt is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment demand brought by technical iteration.
Construction machinery: in December, the decline of excavator sales narrowed, and the demand for construction machinery recovered in the first quarter with steady growth. According to the data of excavator sales in December, the decline of construction machinery sales narrowed: 24038 excavators of all kinds were sold in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%; Among them, 15423 units in China, down 43.5% year-on-year; 8615 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 104.6%. According to the statistics of Securities Daily, the total investment of major projects started in December last year reached 2.28 trillion yuan, and the capital construction force is required by steady growth. At present, the valuation of construction machinery sector is low in the mechanical equipment industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation and repair of construction machinery under the demand of steady growth.
Semiconductor equipment: the shipment volume of semiconductor equipment in the United States and Japan reached a new high in December, which is optimistic about the growth of China’s semiconductor equipment. According to semi data, the shipment amount of semiconductor equipment in North America in December 2021 was US $3.92 billion, with a chain comparison of – 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of + 46.1%; Total shipments in 2021 reached a record $42.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 44.3%. According to SEAJ, Japan’s semiconductor equipment manufacturing shipment in December 2021 was 303.37 billion yen, a month on month increase of + 7.7% and a year-on-year increase of + 71.0%; In 2021, the annual shipment reached 3076.76 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of + 37.1%. At present, China Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Changjiang storage and Huahong group have entered the production expansion period, bringing order opportunities to domestic equipment manufacturers. China has become the world’s largest semiconductor equipment market. China’s semiconductor equipment has achieved key technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. The semiconductor industry has risen to the national strategic level and has a strong driving force for localization. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the semiconductor equipment industry whose localization rate is expected to continue to improve.
Lithium battery equipment: the production and sales of electric vehicles reached a new high in December, and attention was paid to the valuation and repair of lithium battery equipment company. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in 2021 were 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the market penetration reached 13.4%. With the high growth of downstream demand, power battery manufacturers have actively expanded production, and the production and sales of power batteries have achieved high growth: the output of power batteries in 2021 was 219.7gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 170.1%; China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) the installed capacity of battery is 154.5gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 142.8%. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) the production capacity planning by 2025 will be 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively. The accelerated expansion of battery enterprises will bring sufficient orders to lithium equipment manufacturers this year and next. Recently, the lithium battery equipment sector has a large correction, so it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities brought by the valuation and repair of the sector.
Risk factors:
The issuance of debt was less than expected, and the industry competition increased the risk.
