Based on the heavy position data of 21q4 active partial stock public offering funds (statistics as of December 31, 2021) and the inflow of A-Shares through Shanghai Stock connect + Shenzhen Stock connect (hereinafter referred to as “northbound funds”, statistics as of January 28, 2022), this paper discusses the upward space and direction of the banking sector.
The low allocation of public offering heavy positions to banks has narrowed, and the transformation is taking place. The share of 21q4 bank shares in the stock market was -0.23pct month on month, or due to the pessimism of economic outlook expectations, the brewing of real estate credit risk, and the pressure on bank asset delivery and asset quality in the second half of 21. The low distribution difference was 4.39%, narrowed by 0.54 PCT month on month.
The center of gravity of public offering positions is shifted to urban commercial banks, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) is the main direction of position increase. In the second half of the year, affected by the market’s increasing concern about real estate credit risk, stock banks raised heavy positions in 21q4, with a month on month ratio of -1.9pct, while urban commercial banks continued the upward trend, with a month on month ratio of + 3.1pct. The concentration of public offering heavy positions was further improved. The top two heavy positions were CMB and Ningbo, accounting for 56.3% in total, and the latter accounted for + 4.2pct in the sector month on month.
The net purchase volume of northbound funds to banks ranked second in recent three months and first in recent one month. In January, the position of northbound capital in bank stocks accounted for 8.1%, with a month on month increase of + 1.4pct. The increase of position and net purchase ranked first among 31 industries. In the past three months, the net inflow of funds going north to the banking sector was 21.57 billion yuan, ranking second only to power equipment. Historically, the continuous inflow of funds from the North has often catalyzed the continuous bank market.
Northbound capital’s interest in joint-stock banks turned, and China Merchants Bank and Societe Generale gained significant holdings. In the second two weeks after January, the position proportion of funds going north to joint-stock banks rebounded, urban commercial banks continued to rise, but the margin slowed down, and the position proportion of large banks decreased, which changed the previous downward trend of joint-stock banks and the upward trend of urban commercial banks and large banks. At present, the interest rate reduction is superimposed on the promotion of real estate M & a policy, the real estate credit risk is mitigated, and the reason for the valuation repair of joint-stock banks is stronger than that of urban commercial banks.
February gold shares: Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) . The potential of the “commercial bank + investment bank” model has been reflected in the financial report. The endowments of peers and investment banks are more suitable for the era of great wealth management. Capital constraints urge the issuance of convertible bonds and strengthen the willingness to convert shares. In 2021, the revenue base is low, the bad debts are completely cleared and the performance will and ability are strong. In addition, as of January 28, the Pb of China Merchants Bank was 1.60 times, Ping An was 0.94 times and Societe Generale was 0.73 times. The relative valuation of Societe Generale was low.
Investment suggestion: the capital flows into the north continuously and is optimistic about the market of the sector. At present, the main logic of the bank is to broaden the currency and credit to promote steady growth and improve economic expectations. During the Spring Festival, many real estate M & A to special bonds were issued, and the M & A events also increased significantly, which mitigated the real estate risk; Real estate sales shrank significantly year-on-year in January, and the subsequent five-year LPR still has downward space, which further catalyzes the continuation of the bank market. It is suggested to pay attention to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in high-quality joint-stock banks and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) in high expansion city commercial banks.
Risk tip: steady growth is lower than expected; Accelerated exposure to real estate risks; The performance is lower than expected.
