Core view
Macro: the expectation of US interest rate hike is ahead of schedule, and China’s monetary policy is “dominated by me”. Abroad: the fuse for the recent rise of US bond interest rate is that the market expectation of raising interest rate is further advanced. On January 18, the 10-year US bond yield jumped to 1.88%, a new high in recent two years. China: LPR cut by 5 basis points, highlighting the loose and moderate policy determination. On January 20, the one-year LPR reported 3.7%, down 10 basis points from the previous month, the second consecutive month of decline; The five-year LPR was reported at 4.6%, down 5 basis points from the previous month, the first reduction since May 2020.
Iron and steel: the inventory rebounded in the off-season before the festival, and the capacity utilization of long and short processes was differentiated. This week, the output of rebar decreased slightly by 1.10% month on month, and the consumption decreased significantly by 4.39% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of thread steel in the long process of this week was 70.1%, with a significant increase of 1.76pct month on month. However, the resumption speed of steel enterprises is still limited by the expectation of the Winter Olympic Games. The resumption of production of steel enterprises in some areas is slow.
New energy metals: resource nationalism is on the rise, and Chinese enterprises are united horizontally and vertically. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 298500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 3.11% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 364000 yuan / ton, up 4.30% month on month. This week, MB standard cobalt was flat on a month on month basis, while Co3O4 was flat on a month on month basis. The spot price of nickel was US $2342.2% lower than that of LME this week.
Industrial metals: LME inventory of copper and aluminum decreased significantly, and the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve suppressed copper prices. This week, TC / RC of copper smelters was flat on a month on month basis. The global refined copper output and primary refined copper output increased slightly on a month on month basis in October. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level of 88% in November, with a slight decrease of 0.79pct on a month on month basis; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased significantly month on month, and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper decreased significantly by 2.93% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Yunnan increased month on month this week.
Gold: the Fed raised interest rates against the wind, and the gold price fell significantly month on month. This week, Comex gold price decreased significantly by 2.58% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold increased sharply by 13.36% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.78%, up slightly by 0.03pct month on month
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is suggested to pay attention to the listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708, buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (600507, not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932, buy), and the listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) (600808, not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782, not rated), Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) (000898, not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) (000825, not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) (002318, buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460, not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756, bought), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792, not rated) and other lithium rich enterprises.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) of mine end expansion (601899, buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807, not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677, bought), and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219, not rated) of high-end aluminum enterprises.
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (600547, not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) (000603, not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
