Core view:
The CSRC plans to fully register the work plan this year, and the rules and regulations will be implemented within the year
On January 28, according to the official website of the CSRC, the CSRC recently formulated the legislative work plan for 2022 and made an overall deployment for the legislative work of the whole year. According to the deployment, relevant regulations on the implementation of the comprehensive registration system will be issued this year, including the formulation of regulations such as the administrative measures for the registration of initial public offerings and the administrative measures for the registration of securities issuance of listed companies. The CSRC said that it will implement the decision and deployment of the central economic work conference on the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system, and formulate regulations such as the administrative measures for the registration of initial public offerings and the administrative measures for the registration of securities issuance of Listed Companies in 2022.
Securities industry perspective
Recently, the average daily turnover of the two cities has dropped due to the pre holiday effect, but the short-term internal and external disturbance does not change the medium and long-term performance of the securities industry. From the perspective of supervision, the policy continues to be loose and good, providing a good development environment for the securities industry. In 2018, after experiencing the stage of large impairment losses caused by credit default events and the continuous downturn of the market, the securities industry began to repair its performance upward since 2019. From the perspective of policy, a number of favorable policies for the securities industry and encouraging the development of innovative business implemented by the state will stimulate the valuation repair and upward of the securities sector. In addition, the establishment of Beijing stock exchange will directly promote the growth trend of IPO business, and is expected to improve the activity of relevant business markets and continue to catalyze the performance of securities companies.
We believe that the supporting logic of the performance growth of the securities industry at this stage lies in:
(1) the increase in performance brought about by the transformation of brokerage business to wealth management mode is mainly due to the constant trend of residents’ deposits from banks that bring lower returns and liquidity to the stock market that can bring higher returns and high liquidity, superimposed by the expansion of securities companies’ fund investment adviser pilot, the gradual expansion of fund holdings and the increase of residents’ demand for active management business, The simultaneous rise of volume and price promotes the continuous rise of the outlook of the securities industry.
(2) the performance increment contributed by the new market places bred by innovative business, such as the expansion of securities lending scale, the strong demand for derivatives business inside and outside the market, the exploration of securities settlement fund model and the popularization of “investment bank + investment” two wheel driven business model, will raise the performance level of securities companies. From the perspective of the whole securities industry, the above growth support logic will provide a new revenue growth point for the whole industry; For large-scale securities companies, it will further develop in the strategic direction of building aircraft carrier level securities companies in the country; For small and medium-sized securities companies, their exhibition direction and ability will benefit from the new blue ocean market and earn differentiated income.
Recommended targets: 1) leading securities companies: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) *; 2) Securities companies with wealth management characteristics: Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) *, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) *, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (*: not covered in depth yet)
Risk tip: the effect of policy implementation is less than expected or even tightened, liquidity is tightened, stock based turnover has fallen sharply, and the overall market downside risk.
