Weekly News Express
Industry news: 1) in 2021, Yibin's GDP will be 314.808 billion yuan. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) group achieved 140 billion yuan in operating income, and the added value of "5+1" increased by 12.4% over the previous year, of which Baijiu increased by 7.4%. 2) the State Council issued opinions on supporting Guizhou's new road in the new era of western development, and proposed that the advantages of Chishui river basin should be brought into play to build an important national Baijiu production base. 3) in 2021, Jinsha County liquor sales value reached 6 billion 500 million yuan, the introduction of Baijiu Baijiu 6 projects, the capacity of 93 thousand tons; In 2022, strive to achieve a production capacity of 40000 kiloliters and an output value of more than 4 billion yuan; Strive to realize the listing of jinshajiao liquor in 2024; By 2025, ensure that the production capacity will reach 100000 kiloliters and the output value will reach 12 billion yuan, and strive for the listing of andegu wine.
Company news: 1) the net profit attributable to the parent company of your Liquor Co., Ltd. in 2021 is expected to increase by 52.98-81.98 million yuan, an increase of 6.6-10.2 times compared with the same period in 2020; 2) JDB's sales revenue and profit increased by 50% year-on-year in 2021, reaching a new high and achieving substantial profits for three consecutive years; 3) The net profit of China Resources beer in 2021 was 4.4 billion yuan to 4.7 billion yuan, an increase of 110% to 124% over 2020.
Feedback from key companies this week
Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : during the Spring Festival in 2022, the dynamic sales are in good condition, including good performance in Sichuan and partial shortage in other regions. The payment is received normally during the Spring Festival, the delivery progress is accelerated year-on-year, and the first quarter is about to start well. 1) Product: at present, the market performance price of crystal willing / taste willing is 450-550 and 400-450 yuan. The feedback of crystal willing is better than expected, and the core is still taste willing. 2) Channel: Sichuan region integrates high-quality dealers through the establishment of an alliance. It is expected that there will continue to be positive changes in the channel this year. 3) Marketing: different products find different dealers to do different jobs. The dynamic sales of light bottle wine T68 and Tuopai liuliang are good. The manufacturer directly controls the expenses to ensure that the brand resources enter the market. The company is driven by four strategies: old wine, double brand, youth and internationalization.
Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) : the sales progress, product structure and channel distribution of the Spring Festival in 2022 basically meet the expectations. At present, the payment collection is about 50%, and the overall performance is better than that of last year. 1) Brand: the brand promotion is mainly based on Gu 20, and gradually improves. 2) Products: focus on gu8 and above products, mainly promote GU20 products, hold high and fight high, and implement the strategy of secondary high-end + nationalization. The approved price increased slightly compared with the same period last year. 3) Channel: the impact of the epidemic situation in Anhui is small, the overall consumption is strong, the overall performance of Hui liquor is good, and the sales volume in Henan has declined slightly affected by the epidemic situation.
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : during the Spring Festival in 2022, the collection and dynamic sales are good, the Shanxi terminal is out of stock, the inventory in Bofen and Panama is tight, and the overall collection is more than 30%. 1) Product: blue and white 30 revival edition, with strong wholesale price. Bofen products continue to control the quantity, and the terminal profit is about 8%. Panama has a steady pace of price and promotion. 2) Regional expansion: outside the province, we mainly rely on Bofen to cultivate consumer groups, and blue and white series to improve brand awareness. 3) Channel: the blue and white alliance may be promoted nationwide in the future.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : at present, the overall delivery rhythm is good, the payment is about 30%, Sichuan reaches 40%, the inventory is low, and the dealer's mentality is relatively stable; It is expected that after the personnel adjustment of the company is completed, the company will be on track. 1) Product: the price of puwu channel is about 970 yuan, and the wholesale price is expected to stand at 1000 yuan in 2022. The price of classic sugar is expected to be around RMB 1700 / 0008 in spring, and consumers are expected to accept it. 2) Channel: last year, dealers in Chengdu carried out optimization and reform. Although there are cost differences between large and small merchants, they have overall confidence in the company. 3) Market: the sales in East China are good. Henan is affected by the epidemic and flood, but it has basically completed the task of making a good start to the Spring Festival.
Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the dynamic sales in North China are in good condition, with a payment of about 50%, which is better than that in the same period last year. The terminal demand is less affected, and the delivery progress meets the requirements of the company. The target growth rate of Guojiao in 22 years is 30% - 35%. 1) Products: the high and low rated prices of Guojiao are about 930 and 700 yuan respectively, and the rated prices remain stable. Laojiao 1952 is a shoulder product, priced at 890 yuan, filling the price band within 1000 yuan, which is expected to grow in large quantities. The time-honored special music was upgraded, and the 60 edition of special music grew steadily. 2) Market: in 2022, North China, Northeast China and Sichuan and Chongqing are still key markets, and East China and South China markets are the key development areas of the company.
Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : the Central Plains region has good dynamic sales, about 35% of the payment collection progress has been completed, the inventory has been maintained at a relatively benign level, and the overall delivery situation is better than that of last year. The market will be subdivided in 2022 and the assessment target is expected to be successfully completed. 1) Product: the overall price of internal reference is about 850 yuan, which is basically the same. Inheritance and hongtan are expected to become a strategic single product in the future. 2) Market: Hunan, Henan, Hebei and Shandong are the base markets, and the core market investment will sink to counties and districts. In 2022, the full coverage of prefecture level cities and the coverage of key county-level markets will be completed. 3) Channel: at present, the channel inventory in advantageous areas is benign, and the inventory in some areas outside the province is too large due to the impact of the epidemic, but it is in a controllable range.
Investment view
Overall, although the epidemic has affected the sales of Baijiu in some areas, such as Henan and Shaanxi, the cancellation of the festival has brought about some remedial effect. The high-end liquor is still growing steadily, and the wholesale price of maowulu is relatively stable without obvious decline; After the sub high-end Festival, the performance is commendable, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) collection and dynamic sales are better than expected, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) collection and dynamic sales in the province are better than expected, Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) development outside the province is smooth and the internal reference price is stable, and follow the established rhythm; Among the local wines, Suzhou wine and Huizhou wine were the least affected by the epidemic. In addition, the relaxation of control during the Spring Festival has significantly increased the flow of personnel, and the progress of payment collection and dynamic sales are better than that in the same period last year.
We believe that the feedback of the Spring Festival is normal, which is better than the pessimistic expectation before the year, and the first quarter is about to start well. Our previous view remains unchanged. We continue to recommend high-end liquor Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , secondary high-end medium Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , real estate liquor Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and give the "overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry.
Risk tips
Epidemic fluctuation risk and macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Recommend the risk that the company's performance is less than expected and the risk of industry competition; Food safety risks; Risk of changes in industrial policies; Consumption tax or production risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
