Core view
It is expected that glass prices will climb after the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals of the whole year are better than those at present (early 2022). It is optimistic about the investment opportunity of bottoming and recovery of the industry. Looking back at the historical data of real estate, we can find that the growth rate of real estate commencement and completion has a time difference of about 3 years. Taking this as an anchor, we expect the growth rate of real estate completion to be 2.6% in 2022. On the supply side, the kiln age of the whole glass industry in the production line reached 4.9 years by the end of 2021, an increase of 0.4 years compared with the end of 2020. The over age service of the industry production line has accelerated the overall kiln age. Based on this, combined with other historical data of the glass industry, we build the industry supply and demand curve for calculation. It is estimated that the growth rate of glass sales in 2022 will be 4.7%, and the production capacity supply will be basically the same as that in 2021. The annual average price difference is 56 yuan / heavy container, the net profit of the original film enterprise can reach 27 yuan / heavy container, the pre tax price range of glass is 126.8-136.1 yuan / heavy container, and the central price is 131.4 yuan / heavy container. We believe that the current float glass price is close to the bottom, and the profit space of incumbent enterprises is not high. In the short term, it is expected that after the Spring Festival, the price of the original film is expected to usher in repair with the commencement of construction, and with the arrival of the cold repair peak in the first half of the year and the demand peak in the second and third quarters, the price will stand at a high point in the third quarter. In the medium term, the overall fundamentals of the industry in 2022 will fall slightly compared with that in 2021, but will be significantly better than that at present (at the beginning of 2022). The fundamentals of the industry have large repair space and good investment opportunities.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 01 / 24-2022 / 01 / 28), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by - 5.1%, and the excess return relative to CSI 300 was - 0.6%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is - 7.7%, compared with 0.0% of the excess yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was - 2.7%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was 2.4%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was - 4.7% / - 5.6%.
Summary of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 106.69 yuan / weight box, up 0.60% month on month and down 2.6% year on year. The inventory was 35.1 million weight boxes, down 1.3% month on month. We believe that the scale of cold repair in the industry is expected to increase in 2022, the completion of real estate will still maintain a small growth, the price is expected to rise, and there is room for repair of the overall fundamentals. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6275 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 12250 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. The average transaction price in the national cement market this week is 502 yuan / ton. The cement delivery rate decreased by 22pct to 12% month on month, and the storage capacity increased by 0.9pct to 62.7% month on month. The cement price has been adjusted for a long time. In the future, we will pay attention to the starting rhythm of clinker price along the river after the Spring Festival.
The production capacity of glass continued to increase, the production capacity of glass fiber remained at a high level, and the inventory of glass fiber increased slightly: the production of glass resumed in January / cold repair 2 / 3, and the daily melting capacity was 172600 tons by the end of January, an increase of 1350 tons / day compared with the end of December 21. There was no change in the production capacity of the glass fiber industry in January, with the production capacity of 6.018 million tons (annualized), which was the same as that at the end of December 21, and the glass fiber inventory was 216000 tons at the end of January.
Investment proposal and investment object
Optimistic about the bottom recovery of glass prices, corresponding to the key recommendations Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636, buy), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (000012, buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) (603916, buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271, buy), and China Liansu (02128, buy). The glass fiber market continues to improve, and China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176, buy) is recommended. Preferred combination of Dongfang Building Materials next week: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , China Liansu
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
