Planting industry chain: according to China Central Television Network, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas said that in 2022, the state will focus on three aspects to continuously promote the construction of high-standard farmland and ensure that 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland will be built by the end of the year. In terms of the implementation of the plan, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas will guide all localities to speed up the preparation of local high-standard farmland construction plans, accelerate the construction of a national, provincial, municipal and county-level farmland construction planning system, optimize the regional layout of high-standard farmland construction, highlight the objectives of improving the quality of cultivated land and improving grain energy production, and ensure that a total of 1 billion mu will be completed by 2022, In this way, the grain production capacity of more than 1 trillion Jin can be stably guaranteed. In terms of capital guarantee, this year, we will strengthen capital guarantee and improve the quality of construction. While striving to increase the central investment, we will support all localities to further consolidate and expand the financing channels for the construction of high-standard farmland, so as to ensure the construction of one mu and one mu. In terms of mobilizing construction enthusiasm, this year, we will further promote the implementation of the requirements of the same responsibility of the party and government for food security, consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, and strengthen daily supervision and annual evaluation. Benefiting from the strong support of national policies for planting and seed industry, the performance boost of transgenic commercialization to the seed industry sector in 2022 is worth looking forward to. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with excellent performance of hybrid maize varieties.
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2021 has been five years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the steady target focuses on recommending China’s sugar industry leader Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , and the elastic target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) with a valuation of only 10 times. We expect that next year’s performance elasticity comes from the cost improvement brought by the new lysine production capacity put into operation at the end of the year and the downward price of corn. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 13.78 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.62% on a weekly basis. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the number of pigs sold in 2021 was 67.128 million, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. In early October, Chinese pig prices fell to the lowest point of the whole year, and then November and December approached New Year’s day and Spring Festival, and the traditional peak consumption season came, which was good for pig marketing. The overall listing in 2021 increased by 27.37% compared with that in 2020. In addition, the number of fertile sows at the end of 2021 increased by 4.0% year-on-year. It is expected that in the first half of 2022, the process of capacity removal in China’s pig market will accelerate, optimize the sow population structure and eliminate backward production capacity. In the second half of the year, the major traditional festivals will support consumption, which is also better than the slaughter of pigs, and the price of pigs will be significantly improved. According to the prediction of zhuyitong, the number of pigs sold in 2022 may continue to increase year-on-year, with an increase of about 4-5% over 2021. From the current market pattern, the demand for goods preparation during the Spring Festival is less than expected, and it is expected that China’s demand may fall significantly after the Spring Festival, while the slaughter volume of farms does not decrease, and the supply and demand pattern may still show a trend of strong supply and weak demand. At the same time, the market is generally pessimistic about the pig price after the year, and the phenomenon of trampling on the pig price cannot be ruled out. For the selection of specific targets, it is recommended in turn: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Shenzhen Kingkey Smart Agriculture Times Co.Ltd(000048) . In addition, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
