Key investment points
Baijiu: the Spring Festival Baijiu sales are in line with market expectations, and the consumption scene has been restored.
The high-end wine dynamic sales are stable and the gift giving scene is rigid; The secondary high-end dynamic sales are stable, the price is stable and the inventory is low. The resumption of banquet scene also has a positive impact on the secondary high-end demand. In addition, benefiting from the recovery of consumption scenarios, it will also accelerate the upgrading of consumption. The consumption atmosphere of local liquor is better than that in 2021. The consumption upgrading of Hui liquor and Su liquor and the performance of dynamic sales in the Spring Festival are more prominent.
Popular goods: the scene of visiting relatives and friends has recovered, and home consumption is still strong.
Products such as high-end white milk, snack gift boxes, quick-frozen and prefabricated dishes used for home and home entertainment, which are mostly used for gifts, sell well in the Spring Festival, and the overall sales performance of condiments is the leader.
Investment advice: stick to certainty and pay attention to the inflection point of food.
Baijiu Baijiu liquor will continue to promote the structural differentiation of liquor industry, and concentrate on high-end products and famous brand products. The recovery of consumption scenarios will have a certain role in promoting the liquor industry. We believe that the determination of the high-end Baijiu and the flexibility of the high end and regional liquor will be actively embraced throughout the year. The current emphasis is on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) . Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 、 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 、 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) 、 Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) 、 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) 。
In terms of popular products, since the operation of the categories damaged by the epidemic in the past has entered the bottom in 2021, with the fundamental aspects of price increase, improvement of the business environment and weakening of the marginal impact of the epidemic, it is expected to achieve a high restorative increase under the low base in 2022. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the consumption scenario and restore the performance of the beneficiary categories, Whether it can become a wind vane for the gradual recovery of mass products remains to be seen. It is recommended to give priority to the opportunities of beer and dairy products with high flexibility, and pay attention to the individual stocks with clear and long logic and gradually solid business bottom: recommend Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , and pay attention to China Resources beer, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
Risk tip: the demand recovery is less than expected, the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, and the one-sided risk of grass-roots research.
