\u3000\u3000 Sg Micro Corp(300661) (300661)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 650-720 million yuan, an increase of 125.0% - 150.0% compared with the same period of last year; The net profit excluding non recurring profit and loss was 600-670 million yuan, an increase of 126.7% - 154.1% compared with the same period of last year. The company's performance increased rapidly year-on-year, exceeding expectations.
The company actively expanded its product line and optimized its product structure, resulting in rapid growth in revenue and profit. In 2021, the company's performance achieved rapid growth, mainly due to the company's active expansion of business, improvement of product structure, expansion of application fields and increase of product sales, and the corresponding year-on-year growth of revenue.
The simulated IC track has a long slope and thick snow, and the domestic alternative space is broad. According to the prediction of WSTS, the global analog IC market scale is expected to reach US $71.18 billion in 2022, of which China's analog IC sales account for more than 43% of the world, and the corresponding market scale exceeds US $30 billion. However, due to the large scale and high market share of international analog manufacturers, the localization rate of Analog IC is less than 15%. Under the background of strong demand, intensified trade friction and favorable policies in China, there is a broad space for domestic substitution. In the future, benefiting from the continued strong downstream demand and the low-end market share dominated by consumption given by the strategic inclination of large international manufacturers in the medium and high-end market, the localization rate of Analog IC is expected to be further improved, and companies with extensive product line layout in advance are expected to take the lead in benefiting.
The company's power management + signal chain two wheel drive, continuously optimize the product structure, dig deep into the downstream demand, and expand customers at home and abroad. There is a huge space to improve the market share in the future. As the leader of power management IC in China, the company covers 25 categories and nearly 4000 marketable materials, and is still accelerating the expansion of product categories: in the first three quarters of 2021 alone, the company launched nearly 400 new products. The company's products are mainly power management IC products, and the signal chain IC products are coordinated. It has successfully entered five major customers in the fields of consumption, communication equipment, industrial control, medical instruments and automobiles at home and abroad. In 2021, the company further optimized the product structure. According to the industrial research, at present, the mobile phone market of the company's products accounts for 30%, the consumer electronics market of non mobile phones accounts for 30%, and the pan industrial market accounts for 40%. The growth rate of Pan industry is objective, which reflects the landing of the company's R & D achievements in medium and high-end fields such as pan industry. In the future, the company will continue to optimize the product structure and improve the market share, which is expected to consolidate the leading position of simulation.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. From 2021 to 2023, the operating revenue of the company is expected to be RMB 2.20/32.5/4.19 billion respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 690/9.0/1.19 billion respectively. Considering that the leading analog IC companies are expected to take the lead in benefiting from domestic substitution, further horizontal expansion of the company's products and continuous structural optimization, the company is given a 95 times PE valuation in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 362.90 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the production capacity is less than the expected risk; Category expansion is less than expected risk; Upstream supplier price rise risk.
